ANALYSIS: Hard work begins for Kenya after new constitution passed

By Michael Logan Aug 6, 2010, 16:48 GMT

Nairobi - Kenya was still on a high Friday after voters overwhelmingly backed a long-awaited new constitution that should reduce the chances of further tribal conflict.

But while Kenya could see a short-term boost due to the peaceful nature of the vote, much hard work remains to be done before East Africa's largest economy begins to reap the full benefits of the wide-ranging new document.

Wednesday's referendum was the first national vote since over 1,300 people died in tribal clashes that followed opposition accusations that the December 2007 presidential elections were rigged in favour of incumbent Mwai Kibaki.

Over 67 per cent of the voters who turned out supported the new constitution, which will replace the document created after Kenya gained independence from Britain in 1963.

Fears of more violence proved unfounded despite tensions stoked by the church and some political leaders opposed to clauses on abortion and land reform.

The new electoral body drew praise for the efficient and transparent nature of the poll, which left no room for credible accusations of irregularities.

It was a far cry from December 2007, when a delay in announcing the winner prompted howls of outrage from backers of opposition leader Raila Odinga, now prime minister, and led to clashes between rival tribes.

The immediate benefit of the referendum for Kenya will be a boost to its damaged reputation as a stable state and, many hope, a boost to economic growth.

US Vice President Joe Biden, speaking during a visit to Kenya in June, said that the passage of the constitution would likely bring increased foreign investment. Analysts believe that this trend, helped by the recent inception of the East African common market, should slowly begin to assert itself.

'I think the overwhelming, and overwhelmingly calm, passage of the referendum is a significant step forward for Kenya in the minds of international investors, whose experience in the previous elections and its violent aftermath was quite negative,' David Aserkoff, Strategist at the London-based Exotix, told the German Press Agency dpa.

Kenya's growth plummeted from 7.1 per cent in 2007 to 1.7 per cent in 2008 on the back of the post-election violence and the global recession. This year it is expected to settle around the 4 per cent mark, but some feel growth could now hit greater heights.

'The passage of this new constitution cannot be underestimated at home,' Kenyan economist Aly-Khan Satchu wrote in a blog on the CS Monitor website. 'It is cathartic and the feel-good spillover will continue to prove a rising tide that will lift most boats.'

However, these benefits are based purely on market perceptions.

Many laws need to be passed to introduce the multitude of changes that represent the meat of the constitution.

This process is likely to take many years, particularly since some powerful figures are opposed to certain clauses - land reform chief amongst them. The constitution paves the way for land that was dished out through cronyism under previous regimes to be taken back by the state.

'I think it's a very ambitious proposal that's going to need a lot of implementation and a lot of goodwill,' Nairobi-based analyst and businessman Robert Shaw told dpa. 'On the flip side, there are a lot of people whose interests it does not serve to implement it.'

One of the key clauses in the constitution will peg back the power of the president through establishing a two-tier parliament and decentralizing power.

Many believe that transferring some control from the executive branch will reduce the stakes in future presidential elections. In the past, whichever tribe has gained control of the presidency has seen great benefit, leading to clashes such as those at the presidential elections.

Shaw believes that once this comes into force, it will help ward off future problems and help Kenya move forward.

'The system since independence is that the winner takes everything ... and the coterie around that are the people who have moved on and accumulated wealth and power,' he said. 'It is going to break that mould, which is very positive for the country.'