DRCongo's uncertain elections, with blood already spilled

By Shabtai Gold Nov 26, 2011, 16:08 GMT

Johannesburg - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is scheduled to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on Monday, but there are doubts polling will go ahead amid concerns about mismanagement and political violence.

Violence is a theme running through the campaigns in the elections, which President Joseph Kabila hopes will see him stay in power. Politicians use ethnic hate speech in their campaigns and some opposition members have threatened their supporters will take to the streets if they do not win.

Human rights groups and the United Nations have documented incidents of the police brutally attacking opposition rallies in the months prior to the election.

'I cannot say yet the vote will happen on Monday. There is still a lot of uncertainty involved and the situation is very fluid,' said Thierry Vircoulon, who heads the International Crisis Group's team in Central Africa.

Vircoulon says that if the vote goes ahead, he will keep a close eye on December 6, when the results are expected. Depending on how the opposition reacts 'we may end up in a very confrontational situation,' he told dpa.

Some of the politicians running in the elections are accused of having blood on their hands, reflecting the years of war that have wrecked the country, which, while resource-rich, is ranked worst in the world on this year's UN Human Development Index.

Ntabo Ntaberi Sheka, a militia leader, is wanted by the Congolese government on charges of sending his fighters in 2010 to gang-rape 387 women in the Walikale region in the east.

In the days before the election, Sheka was back in Walikale, asking citizens to elect him to represent them in parliament - in full view of the police.

'The failure to arrest someone who is out publicly campaigning for votes sends a message that even the most egregious crimes will go unpunished,' said Anneke Van Woudenberg, an Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch.

Van Woudenberg called on the government to arrest the militia man, who is one of more than 18,500 candidates competing for the 500 seats in the National Assembly, the main house of parliament. But he is not the only suspected criminal running for office. Even ministers have been accused of war crimes.

The pure logistics of the election are extensive. The central African nation has 71 million citizens, with 32 million eligible to vote. The country is larger than Western Europe and will have 62,000 polling stations - many in remote areas without roads.

The ballot papers, complex and lengthy, are not all ready. The ones that have arrived from the printing presses in South Africa and China have not been distributed yet to rural regions.

The man at the helm of the country, Joseph Kabila, 40, is seeking another term in the presidency. He was first hurriedly implanted in the office in 2001, after his father, Laurent Kabila, was assassinated at the height of Congo's civil war, which left 5 million dead and involved eight African nations.

In 2006, Kabila was voted into the post, in the country's first elections, which were deemed generally fair by observers, though the main opposition group contested the results.

The incumbent is liked by his supporters for bringing stability to most of the country and making deals with China worth about 9 billion dollars for desperately needed investments to build the roads and hospitals Congo lacks.

But he has lost some core support since 2006, notably in the east, where the conflict over minerals is still simmering. The area, stunning in beauty, is infamous for the widespread use of rape as a weapon of war.

According to the American Journal of Public Health, 48 women are raped in Congo every hour. Despite this scourge, many men like Sheka, the militia leader running for parliament, roam freely.

The main opposition candidate - there are 11 contenders for the presidency - is 79-year-old Etienne Tshisekedi. He appeared on TV recently to declare himself the president, and said that if his jailed supporters are not released, he would send his fighters to 'break down prison doors.'

If he loses - or, as he says it, if the election is 'stolen,' - Tshisekedi has called for the people of Congo to revolt.

Other candidates already declared the elections a sham, saying voter lists have been tampered with, while doubting the neutrality of the elections commission, known by its French acronym CENI.

Even with 19,000 UN peacekeepers in the country, the eruption of violence is the main worry. The International Committee of the Red Cross said it was working with local medics to ensure volunteers are 'in a position to respond swiftly and effectively in the event of unrest.'