YEARENDER: Cuba in 2008: Hope for change gone with the wind

Dec 21, 2008, 14:59 GMT

Havana - Cuba's 2008 will probably be remembered as the year of hurricanes - in both meteorological and political terms.

Political change that seemed to anticipate reform happened just as the largest island in the West Indies was getting ready to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of a revolution that had previously seemed immovable.

After 19 months of uncertainty since Fidel Castro fell ill and disappeared from the public light in July 2006, the historic Cuban leader finally unveiled a mystery on February 19, when he announced that he would not be standing for re-election as Cuban president.

Five days later, his brother Raul Castro formally succeeded him in the leadership, which he had already held 'temporarily' for over a year-and-a-half.

In his inaugural speech, Raul Castro - who had already proclaimed the need for 'structural changes' a year earlier - boosted the expectations of change among his compatriots as he announced a prompt elimination of 'absurd prohibitions.'

Indeed, the first few months of his leadership did produce quite speedy modifications. Within a short period, and almost without prior warning, Cubans saw their government scrap the rules that prevented them from lodging in the island's luxury hotels, owning cellphones or buying such things as computers or DVD players.

At the same time, Raul Castro's government launched discreet rural reform, decentralized decision-making, liberalized the sale of machinery and redistributed idle land - about half the arable land on the island.

It also put an end to the historic socialist equality in wages by decreeing a reform that eliminated the cap on salaries, although its implementation has been postponed until 2009.

The goal of all these measures was clear: increase the island's scarce production, an issue that is considered key to 'national security' in the face of the constant increase in prices in the international market. Cuba obtains 85 per cent of everything that it consumes from abroad.

Although the United States' governments described such changes as 'cosmetic,' Cubans were glad to see them happen.

However, the lack of developments on other longed-for reforms, like the elimination of exit permits for travellers, a wage increase and the end of the double currency that suffocates Cuban pockets also led to growing frustration within a society that was hoping for faster change.

Observers within the island and beyond as well as opposition activists noted that the reforms so far are not political, and they have stressed the lack of change regarding personal freedoms like expression and travel.

They pointed to a deceleration of reform, noting a division of the Cuban leadership between members more conscious of the need for change, apparently led by Raul Castro, and those that resist reform, reportedly led by Fidel Castro.

However, Fidel Castro himself has denied this, and in a newspaper article under his name he said there was no infighting 'whatsoever' and stressed the 'unity' of the leadership.

Be that as it may, the reform process suffered a severe, external blow in the Northern Hemisphere summer, when two strong hurricanes - Gustav and Ike - churned devastation across the island within about a week of each other.

The violent storms - which would a month later be joined by a third, Paloma, - caused estimated losses of 10 billion dollars in the island's housing, roads and communications infrastructure, as well as in its already battered agriculture.

The hurricanes seemed to blow away the remaining hope for change, but the government of Raul Castro continued to carry out discreet manoeuvres in the international arena that could point towards a new long-term strategy.

Over the past 12 months, under the younger Castro, Cuba not only signed two international human rights deals which are still pending ratification. Havana also broadened its international relations, reestablishing full ties with Mexico and strengthening economic and political links with emerging powers like Brazil, Russia and China.

Political dialogue and cooperation with the European Union were also relaunched after the EU lifted sanctions imposed in 2003, and Cuba even entered the Rio Group of Latin American and Caribbean nations.

In a recent interview, Raul Castro went as far as not to rule out a meeting with incoming US president Barack Obama, albeit in a 'neutral place,' although that will of course have to wait at least until 2009.

From January, during the year the Cuban Revolution turns 50, it will become more apparent whether the communist country is really hanging course or whether reform will just hover at the surface.