International tug-of-war continues on Honduras (News Feature)

By Veronica Sardon Nov 30, 2009, 22:24 GMT

Buenos Aires - Honduran voters may have elected Porfirio Lobo to hold the presidency of the troubled Central American country, but there was little indication Monday that he would be admitted with full honours to international circles anytime soon.

Sunday's election, the legitimacy of which is disputed by many, appeared to have been just another round of wrangling in a drawn-out political crisis, precipitated when Honduras' democratically-elected President Manuel Zelaya was ousted from power by a military coup on June 28.

The international community unanimously condemned the coup and has refused to recognize the de facto Honduran government led by former Congress speaker Roberto Micheletti.

The election, however, has created major international division regarding the situation in Honduras.

Zelaya called his compatriots to boycott the vote. The United States and Colombia have generally recognized the election results. Other countries including Latin American giant Brazil rejected the vote as invalid. The European Union and countries like Mexico are sitting on the fence.

Lobo, of the conservative National Party, got 52.3 per cent of the vote Sunday, according to preliminary official results. He built on the divisions within the Liberal Party - to which both Zelaya and Micheletti belong - to get a solid win at the polls that braced his credentials to lead Honduras into a new phase.

Turnout, which was regarded as crucial in the face of Zelaya's call for a boycott, was very high at over 61 per cent, according to Honduras' electoral authorities. Zelaya disputes the figure, claiming that less than 40 per cent turned out.

There were no reports of major violence on election day. Amnesty International and other non-governmental organizations denounced as arbitrary several detentions and some instances of excessive use of force by police against pro-Zelaya demonstrators.

Focus now turns to Wednesday, when the Honduran Congress is to vote on Zelaya's reinstatement, as provided under the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord of October 30 that was signed by both Zelaya and Micheletti.

While the accord has become frayed from both sides, the United States in particular sees the vote on Wednesday as a key step along the way to restoring constitutional order. Micheletti has temporarily stepped aside for a few days until then, providing what the US calls 'breathing space' for resolution of the five-month-old crisis.

'While the election is a significant step in Honduras' return to the democratic and constitutional order after the 28th June coup, it's just that,' US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Arturo Valenzuela said Monday. 'It's only a step, and it's not the last step.'

   Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Monday that his country would not recognize the elections and would continue to shelter Zelaya at the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa until he was given security guarantees.

   'We need to maintain a firm conviction on things, because this acts as a warning to other adventurers,' Lula said of potential coup perpetrators across the region.

Other major players were standing somewhere between those two positions.

   Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said Madrid 'neither recognized nor ignored' the elections, explaining that Lobo would play a role in the search for a solution to the Honduran political crisis.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon ventured an 'absolute demand' for the restoration of the constitutional order and regretted that there were no UN or Organization of American States (OAS) monitors in Sunday's election.

As things stand, Lobo's election victory remains somewhat Pyrrhic. Honduras remains suspended from the OAS and there was still work to be done to secure the country's return to the international community.

International observers agreed that Zelaya's reinstatement was ever more unlikely.

The Brazilian daily Folha de Sao Paulo last week called for the Brazilian government to become realistic.

'The Lula administration already did all they could do to defend the return to power of ... Zelaya,' the daily said. 'Now it is time for the situation to resolve itself naturally.'

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero called for 'a broad national agreement' in Honduras.

According to weekend Brazilian media reports, Zelaya was evaluating seeking asylum in Nicaragua, if Congress - as expected - definitively rejects his reinstatement.

After the Honduran Congress votes, the OAS is expected to address the situation.

Lobo stood Monday before the chance to lead Honduras out of a major crisis. But he was not quite there.

Even if a consensus is reached that makes him Honduras' internationally-recognized president from January 27, he will have to turn to the more concrete, day-to-day-life challenges of ruling the third-poorest country in the Americas, after Haiti and Nicaragua.