ANALYSIS: Castro reappears to make clear that he is 'still here'

By Silvia Ayuso  Jul 20, 2010, 9:43 GMT

   Washington - In little more than a week, Fidel Castro was seen more times than during his four years of convalescence from the mysterious illness that forced him to relinquish day-to-day power in Cuba.

   He appeared in a televised discussion and visited scientific and political institutions, all against the backdrop of an historic announcement this month by his brother and successor, Raul, to free 52 political prisoners over the next four months.

   Coincidence? Hardly, according to analysts and activists across the political spectrum.

   But opinions vary on how much his reemergence represented support for his brother's decision - which Fidel never mentioned - or was meant as a coded warning to remind Cubans that whatever else occurs, he is still around and things will not change all that much.

   Or perhaps both.

   'Fidel's appearance sends a clear signal that despite this move towards some relaxation he remains in charge and firmly in control of the social and political,' said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington institute specializing in regional policy.

   'I don't think Fidel necessary disagreed with the decision to release the prisoners, but at the same time he wanted to leave no doubt that the regime's political system remained intact,' he said.

   'Basically (the message is): I'm here, I'm aware of what's going on and unless I speak up, I agree,' said Christopher Sabatini, of the Council of the Americas.

   'The lack of a reaction implies consent,' he said.

   For even the most anti-Castro politicians in Washington, his 'not coincidental' reappearance one month before he turns 84 years old implied a blessing of his brother's decision.

   'How interesting that he appears now, as this is happening. The signal is: 'I am still in charge in Cuba,'' said Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Republican congresswoman from Florida and one of Castro's fiercest enemies in US politics.

   She said that his four public appearances in less than 10 days this month were meant to send the message that, 'I am the one who approved this, and all the changes in Cuba have to go through me; I am the one who controls everything.'

   The official US reaction to the decision to free the dissidents was cautious, barely qualified as 'a positive step,' but there is no doubt that every step is being followed with utmost attention.

   In fact, it was revealed last week that the Archbishop of Havana Cardinal Jaime Ortega, the chief mediator in the dissidents' case, had made a trip to the US at the end of June, at the height of the negotiations.

   The US State Department refused to 'confirm or deny' that Ortega had met with senior administration officials, but said it was aware of the talks.

   'We learned through a variety of sources that the Cuban government was considering releasing political prisoners and that the Catholic Church and the Spanish government were playing a role in that effort. We generally do not discuss the details of our communications,' a spokesman said.

   Most Cuba analysts in the US, and even dissidents on the island, are convinced that the decision to free the prisoners was not gratuitous, and that Raul Castro expects a reciprocal gesture, most of all from the European Union but also from Washington.

   President Barack Obama has not yet revealed whether he is thinking about making any more steps to engage dialogue with Cuba apart from initial timid gestures that he made more than a year ago.

   Anti-Castro politicians like Ros-Lehtinen say this is no time to concede anything, but rather to 'exercise maximum pressure on the Cuban tyranny.'

   But Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue said it would be important to take advantage of the opening.

   'There are ample grounds for scepticism based on past experience, and especially in view of Fidel's reappearance, but in any case it is sensible to seize the opportunity to see if the Cubans are really prepared to go further than they have in the past,' he said.

   'Washington should not only welcome the gesture, but also make a reciprocal move that shows it is hopeful of encouraging some political change, however modest.'