Fidel opens space for internal dissent in Cuba, expert says

By Silvia Ayuso Sep 10, 2010, 10:31 GMT

   Washington - The comment by historic Cuban leader Fidel Castro that 'the Cuban model doesn't even work' for the communist island anymore has gone round the world in a matter of hours.

Since the interview was published Wednesday in the US magazine The Atlantic, politicians and academics alike are wondering what these words actually mean when uttered by someone whose comments are never quite casual.

For Cuban-American political scientist Arturo Lopez-Levy, the elderly Castro's words 'open spaces for the questioning of the model that is taking place inside the Communist Party' of Cuba.

'There are two elements that are greatly questioned by the most conservative wing (of the party): dialogue with the Cuban (Roman Catholic) Church, and the first steps of economic reform that are being taken,' Lopez-Levy told the German Press Agency dpa in an interview.

'The fact that he comes and says that, is like telling those people that it is necessary to re-think the model because the conditions in which that model was devised are not the same,' the research associate at the University of Denver added.

Lopez-Levy agrees with fellow-Cuban expert Julia Sweig, who witnessed Castro's comments first-hand. Sweig, who has known Castro for more than 20 years, was quoted in The Atlantic as saying that the historic Cuban leader 'wasn't rejecting the ideas of the Revolution.'

For Lopez-Levy, Castro's comments 'do not imply that he is going to say, 'What we did earlier was wrong,' but they go along the lines of updating the model, of saying, 'Conditions are different, so we have to think differently'.'

The expert noted that his remarks help grant definitive legitimacy to Castro's younger brother and successor, Raul Castro. But it goes beyond that.

'In this case, he is thinking about what comes next, and he is opening the door for those coming afterwards to be able to re-think the model in complete freedom, because conservatives are always keen to say, 'What you are suggesting is a betrayal to the commander's legacy'.'

'By saying himself a sentence like this, he opens spaces. Not totally, but he is obviously opening the scope of possibilities which political managers within Cuba can use,' the expert said.

Still, Lopez-Levy stressed that Castro was not 'handing a blank cheque to Raul or to reform.'

'He is accepting his position as former president, and that gives him a bit more margin to use that position, releasing or using the brake at his convenience,' the expert said.

The state of the Cuban economy plays a role in this.

'It is clear that the country's economic situation is very critical and it is appropriate for the most conservative sectors to consider the context of this situation. But that does not mean that if tomorrow or the day after the economic situation improves, (Castro) will not criticize a path of reform,' Lopez-Levy said.

Even if Fidel Castro's words are no 'blank cheque' for change in Cuba as demanded by Washington, the expert regretted the 'slowness' and the 'shyness' of US moves in the face of developments on the Caribbean island over the past few months.

Lopez-Levy warned that with his 'cautious' attitude, US President Barack Obama is missing the boat when it comes to affecting events in Cuba.

'Unfortunately, the Obama Administration is wasting great opportunities to have an impact on the internal debate that is taking place in Cuba (and) to promote and speed up a dynamic of change,' he said.

For Lopez-Levy the absence of a quick reaction and the mere deployment of 'observation balloons' such as recent rumours that Obama might increase visas for students and religious groups is counterproductive.

He said in the vacuum, supporters of former US president George W Bush can gather strength and seize the agenda.

'The Cuban issue requires action of a greater calibre,' he warned. 'This is a waste of opportunities.'