PREVIEW: Peru chooses president among extremes and old acquaintances

By Jan-Uwe Ronneburger Apr 7, 2011, 18:12 GMT

Buenos Aires/Lima - Peru is to elect a new president Sunday from a group of candidates that includes former president Alejandro Toledo and the daughter of former president-turned-dictator Alberto Fujimori.

The definitive election of a president is likely to be left for a runoff in June, but a lot is expected to be settled this week.

Rarely has a presidential election in Peru been this tight, with five candidates taking turns in the top spots, according to opinion polls. Three of the candidates are regarded as having the best chances of making it to the second round of voting, and two of these represent politically extreme positions.

It remains to be seen whether the liberal-conservative economic policies of outgoing President Alan Garcia are to be continued under the next government, or whether Peru is to leave the group of countries, including Chile and Colombia, that are particularly friendly with the United States for a more left-oriented course like that of Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia.

Depending on which opinion poll is consulted, former moderate president Toledo, 65, is first, second or third in voters' preferences. During his presidency from 2001-06, Peru went through a period of relative stability and economic growth.

A politician who rose from a childhood in poverty during which he worked as a shoe shine boy, critics slam Toledo for a frivolous lifestyle and for a lack of political ideas. However, he can probably count on many votes from the urban middle class, which sees him as the lesser of all possible evils Sunday and beyond.

Close on his heels, or perhaps even ahead of Toledo, stand two rather extreme candidates: former soldier Ollanta Humala, 48, a left- wing nationalist, and Keiko Fujimori, 35, who wants to emulate her conservative father's authoritarian policies from his decade in power (1990-2000), albeit without their dictatorial edge.

Toledo, Humala and Fujimori all have just over 20 per cent support, according to opinion polls. Two other candidates, liberal Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and centre-right candidate Luis Castaneda, follow just a few percentage points behind.

Humala lost in 2006 to Garcia, who won the election with more than half the votes in the first round. At the time, Garcia too seemed like the safest option to many Peruvians.

Humala was burdened by his own extreme nationalism, but also by his ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who is very unpopular in Peru. This time around, Humala has tried to distance himself from the outspoken Chavez, and his own discourse has been a lot milder.

Critics accuse Humala of not having changed the core of his message. They say he still intends to impose state control on the economy, to isolate the country internationally with his outdated nationalism, to undermine democracy and to cling on to power. And Chavez himself recently praised Humala, which is unlikely to have pleased the Peruvian.

Keiko Fujimori vows to build on the tough policies of her father and to push the country further along the path of economic growth. Her followers are mainly among the Andean country's poor.

Many Peruvians, however, continue to associate the name Fujimori with the human rights violations and corruption that marked Alberto Fujimori's leadership. He eventually faxed in his resignation from Japan in 2000, was arrested in Chile in late 2005 and extradited to Peru two years later. He is currently serving long prison sentences for human rights violations and corruption.

2010 Nobel Prize for Literature laureate Mario Vargas Llosa, who was a presidential candidate in Peru in 1990 and lost to Fujimori in the runoff, was graphic as he described his fears ahead of Sunday's election and the options for a runoff.

'I do not think my compatriots will be so foolish as to put us before the dilemma of choosing between AIDS and terminal cancer, which is what Humala and Keiko Fujimori would be,' Vargas Llosa told Peruvian television in 2009.

Last week, this Peruvian author and liberal politician, noted that that past comment 'was unfortunately not an exaggeration.'

'Like many Peruvians I see what might happen with huge concern,' Vargas Llosa told Peruvian media.

'Peru has opted for modernity, for a democracy, for openness to the world, for stimulating investment, and all that is bringing us very good results. I think that is undeniable. I think it would be a great misfortune for that to stop,' he said.

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