PREVIEW: Canada heading for another cliffhanger vote

By Levon Sevunts Apr 27, 2011, 10:27 GMT

Montreal ­ As Canadians head to polls on May 2, it seems the most exciting race will be the one for the second place.

Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper looks assured at least of another minority government or maybe even a razor-thin majority.

But it is the surprisingly good showing of the left-wing New Democratic Party that has many observers waiting excitedly for election day.

According to some polls, the NDP led by Jack Layiton could nearly triple its prescence in Parliament and for the first time fare better than or at least pull even with the centrist Liberal Party, which has governed Canada for most of its 144-year history.

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, a respected academic, journalist and author, on the other hand, has failed to connect with Canadians despite a passionate and fiery campaign and is now forced to fight on two fronts: against the Tories on the right and the NDP on the left.

The Globe and Mail newspaper reported that an EKOS poll conducted from April 22 to April 24 gave the Conservatives 33.7-per-cent support nationally among decided and leaning voters; the NDP had 28- per-cent support; the Liberals, 23.7 per cent; the Green Party, 7.2 per cent; and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, which runs candidates only in the French speaking province of Quebec, 6.2 per cent.

If this level of support holds until the election, the NDP could win about 100 seats in Canadas 308-seat parliament and take over the mantle of the official opposition from the Liberals, who are headed for their worst ever showing.

A seat projection using the EKOS poll indicated the Conservatives would lose seats, dropping from 143 to 131, while the NDP would garner 100 seats, up from 36.

The Liberal caucus would fall to 62 seats, against 77 it had when the Parliament was dissolved on March 26. And the Bloc would be reduced to a mere shadow of itself, with a caucus of just 14 MPs, down from 47.

A rival Nanos tracking poll showed the Conservatives within reach of majority government, but it too pointed to the possibility of NDP emerging in second place on May 2.

'We're in terra incognita here,' EKOS president Frank Graves told the Globe.

More than half of NDP seats would come from Quebec, according to the EKOS projections.

That would mark another tectonic shift in Canadian politics. Over the last decade Quebecers have stubbornly resisted advances by the Tories and the Liberals, and have given the majority of their voices to a separatist party to represent their interests in federal politics.

However, it seems Laytons pledges to raise corporate taxes to increase social spending, to withdraw Canadian troops from Afghanistan immediately and to revisit the Canadian constitution to finally win Quebecs approval has resonated with many voters in the province.

With the very future of the Liberal Party in question if it falls to third place, Ignatieff has implored Canadians to return to the centrist fold. At the same time, he has dismissed any talk of a coalition with the NDP to defeat the Conservatives.

'If my aunt had a lower voice, would she be my uncle?' he quipped, when asked about forming a coalition with Layton. 'With the greatest respect, Im fighting to win the next election.'

But some observers have pointed out that given the successful merger between the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance parties to form the current Conservative Party eight years ago, a similar merger of the NDP, the Liberals and the Greens might be inevitable.

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