PREVIEW: Extreme candidates face off for Peruvian presidency

By Gonzalo Ruiz Tovar Jun 2, 2011, 9:00 GMT

Lima - Keiko Fujimori and Ollanta Humala are to face off Sunday in a Peruvian presidential runoff election marked by controversy, polarization and historical trauma.

The two populists appear to be technically tied in recent opinion polls, with both likely to have trouble winning over undecided voters. After all, this is the runoff that Nobel Prize literature laureate Mario Vargas Llosa, a liberal, has described as a choice 'between AIDS and terminal cancer.'

Neither has an association with any of Peru's traditional parties, but have formed de-facto groupings for the duration of their candidacy.

Right-wing populist Fujimori, 36, leader of the so-called Fuerza 2011, is trying to convince voters that she will only restore the good things of her father's 1990-2000 regime.

After being democratically elected president, Alberto Fujimori staged a coup, suspended constitutional rights and shut down Congress. He led a regime that was marked by human rights violations and corruption as much as by economic prosperity and the defeat of the bloody Maoist group Shining Path.

Alberto Fujimori eventually fled Peru and faxed in his resignation from Japan, the country of his forebears. He was arrested in Chile in 2005 and extradited two years later to Peru, where he is currently serving long prison sentences.

A lot of the support for Keiko Fujimori ahead of Sunday's election rests on the fears prompted by Humala, 48, leader of the so-called Peruvian Nationalist Party. A left-wing nationalist, who in 2006 campaigned on a platform similar to that of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, he has since moderated his discourse, greatly distanced himself from Chavez and adopted former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as a model instead.

However, many fear that changes in Humala's positions may be little more than a campaign strategy and that a win for the retired military officer may trigger chaos and economic uncertainty that would threaten Peru's newfound prosperity.

In the first round of the presidential election, held on April 10, Humala led the pack with 31 per cent of the votes, mostly from poor people who feel they have missed out on Peru's economic growth and expect radical change. Fujimori got 23 per cent of the votes, mostly from supporters of her father's controversial policies.

Fujimori has got the endorsements of defeated right-wing presidential candidates Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Luis Castaneda. While both once slammed her for representing an undemocratic past, they now back her as a guarantee for the current economic model.

Humala, in turn, has won over the support of centrist forces, including former Peruvian president Alejandro Toledo and even author Vargas Llosa, a former politician himself.

However, there is little evidence that such endorsements actually work in Peru in terms of a transference of votes. It is up to the runoff candidates to convince undecided voters.

Both Humala and Fujimori would have a hard time winning over new voters if they were not facing another extreme candidate in the runoff.

For the same reason, whoever the winner, they are unlikely to have a honeymoon period and will have to govern for five years from July 28 with little support of their own and a lot to prove.

Outgoing Peruvian President Alan Garcia - whose party is immersed in an internal struggle and fielded no candidates in this presidential election - called for calm in the wake of the first round of voting.

'Nothing bad is going to happen in Peru. Whoever is elected will necessarily have to integrate all other parties,' he said.

It remains to be seen, however, whether either Humala or Fujimori are up to the tough task in a country of 29 million with close to 35 per cent of the population under the poverty line despite an economic growth rate close of 8.8 per cent.