ANALYSIS: Referendum stresses Bolivia's deep rifts

May 5, 2008, 19:03 GMT

Buenos Aires/La Paz - The outcome of a maverick referendum in the Bolivian region of Santa Cruz has reinforced heavily polarized positions in the poorest country in South America.

According to preliminary official results made public Monday, 84.2 per cent of the voters in the natural-gas-rich province favoured an increased autonomy for Santa Cruz. Some 64.2 per cent of those entitled to vote actually cast their ballots in Sunday's referendum.

Bolivia lies close to very deep economic, social and ethnic precipices, with very unequal distribution of resources. Its indigenous majority continues to live mostly in poverty following centuries of discrimination by the descendents of European settlers who ruled the country until just recently.

Leftist Bolivian President Evo Morales - a former coca grower leader and the country's first-ever president of indigenous descent - has repeatedly clashed with local elites since he was elected in late 2005, in his declared efforts to improve the lot of the majority.

Indeed, in order to make the changes he thinks are necessary, Morales needs power and money. And - with his push for a new constitution for the Andean country - he has hardly been subtle in his charge to obtain as much as possible at the expense of elites who are not his natural constituency.

In Santa Cruz the poverty rate lies at around 40 per cent, while in western Bolivia it is as high as 80 per cent. Santa Cruz is the richest province in the country, with a GDP per capita that is about three times greater than that in Bolivia's poor western highlands.

Another three provinces in the eastern lowlands are preparing to hold similar referendums in June - Tarija, Beni and Pando.

A different distribution of wealth along the lines proposed by Morales would inevitably worsen the lot of many in Santa Cruz, particularly the wealthiest, and they have bitterly resisted Morales' policies. The search for more autonomy is an effort to isolate themselves as far as possible from the grip of the central government.

Late Sunday, as the Bolivian president proclaimed the 'complete failure' of the election, thousands of pro-autonomy voters celebrated well into the night in the regional capital, Santa Cruz, their triumph over what they called 'Marxism.'

However, the referendum is technically not binding for Morales, since according to the country's laws, the central electoral authority is the only one which can approve referendums and monitor their results, even at the local level.

The international community from the Organization of American States and the United States to Bolivia's neighbours have backed the sovereignty of the Bolivian central government and the country's territorial integrity.

The US, hardly a major fan or Morales' policies and his nationalization of the oil industry, on Monday defended Bolivia's territorial integrity and urged the opponents to hold dialogue and work things out.

All opinion polls prior to the election had anticipated 70 per approval for autonomy, and abstention remained a key element. The fact that it was relatively high, at over 35 per cent, gave Morales reason to stand by his own position.

The president stressed that the referendum, which he described as 'illegal and unconstitutional,' only saw under 50 per cent of the people registered to vote actually support more autonomy. He got the figure from the sum of abstention, non-valid votes and votes against the proposal.

There were no conciliatory moves or disposition to compromise from either side.

Morales' idea of a socialist organization of society collides head-on with the economically-successful representatives of the capitalist economic model in Santa Cruz.

However, it may be argued that that was precisely why Morales was elected president in 2005: most of the people who gave him close to 54 per cent of the votes in the most recent general election in Bolivia want him to improve their lot at the expense of the country's elite, notably in Santa Cruz.

The situation is extremely tense.

In Santa Cruz, one person died and at least 24 were injured, and several reporters were attacked inside the international media centre in the provincial capital. There were heavy clashes in rural areas and in poor neighbourhoods in the city of Santa Cruz between supporters of more regional autonomy and supporters of Morales.

The referendum was a show of force and it changed little for or against Bolivian elites, for or against the left-wing president.

Political analysts in La Paz noted that both sides have nothing left to do but to keep going at each other and will have the chance to do so soon, in the three upcoming referendums.