ANALYSIS: Chavez gets his way, sets sights on long reign

By Veronica Sardon Feb 16, 2009, 5:32 GMT

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez\'s followers celebrate in the streets of Caracas, Venezuela, on 15 February 2009, the "yes" victory in the national referendum, with the 54.36 per cent of the votes, which will decide on a change to the country\'s constitution that would allow Chavez to extend his period in office beyond the currently-mandated two terms, due to end in 2013. EPA/Harold Escalona

Buenos Aires - Critics have long accused Venezuela President Hugo Chavez of wanting to perpetuate himself in power, and he has barely made a secret of his intentions to reign for as long as it takes to consolidate his '21st-century socialism.'

On Sunday, Venezuelans voted to eliminate term limits and allow him to seek election for 2013-19, which he immediately ratified he intends to make use of.

'Nobody can make himself perpetual. It is God that is perpetual, and the homeland must be perpetual,' Chavez shouted to supporters in his triumphant address.

He defined himself as a 'soldier of the people' and put himself forward as the tool that makes the homeland complete along the lines he has delineated since reaching the presidency in 1999.

'The Venezuelan homeland is either socialist or will never be perpetual,' he pronounced.

But many critics doubt both the legitimacy of his populist measures, and his claimed commitment to democracy.

Chavez led a failed coup d'etat in 1992, albeit against Carlos Andres Perez, a president who was later to be removed from office by the Supreme Court for the misappropriation of state funds.

He later rejoined the democratic path, insisted he sought only to improve the lot of Venezuela's millions of poor and achieved power through landslide election victories.

But he has not shown any interest in seeking consensus or accommodating dissidents of any kind. He appeared to thrive in a context in which over half of Venezuela's voters give him free rein to govern while the rest, a very large minority, feel their rights constantly violated by the Chavista state.

He did not shy away from ruling by decree, and while he admitted defeat at the polls the only time he suffered one so far - the first referendum to eliminate term limits in December 2007 - it took him little over a year to call a new referendum on a variation of the same proposal, which he finally won Sunday.

He has made full - some say indiscriminate - use of state power to further his personal agenda.

The opposition has denounced him a major abuser of power, and warns of an emerging dictatorship in Venezuela.

But 10 years into his presidency, Chavez can still claim the support of well over 50 per cent of the country's voters. And he showed yet again on Sunday that he is on course to a 20-year mandate.

During his first 10 years in power, he has thoroughly reshaped the country's institutions, through a new constitution and the exercise of a strong executive branch.

Chavez enjoyed record prices for oil in recent years and exploited the proceeds to develop a solid national political base and growing international clout as a regional leader.

In the coming years, however, he will have to deal with a severe international financial and economic crisis, with oil revenues now down sharply from record highs, and perhaps with the erosion of charisma as unfulfilled expectations mount.

But Chavez has no less than historic Cuban leader Fidel Castro as his mentor and role model, who Cuba for close to half a century.

Chavez has made it clear that he is not done reshaping Venezuela along socialist lines, and he is unlikely to stop evoking passions for and against his proposals.

Politically, the Chavez rollercoaster is a long ride, whether one likes it or not, and his is a powerful engine. But it is anyone's guess whether it can be stopped before his self-declared and ever-moving finish line.