ANALYSIS: New beginning for Honduras under President Lobo

By Jan-Uwe Ronneburger Jan 27, 2010, 21:00 GMT

Buenos Aires/Tegucigalpa, Honduras - 'Reconciliation' is the key word that Porfirio Lobo uttered Wednesday, when he was inaugurated as Honduras' president.

The impoverished Central American country is in dire need of reconciliation, seven months after a coup that ousted president Manuel Zelaya and led Tegucigalpa to international isolation.

Internal tensions have been rife for many months, even before the coup, and Lobo, a 62-year-old conservative agribusinessman, did well to promise a new beginning.

In the hours prior to his inauguration, conditions were established to end the crisis.

Congress passed early Wednesday an amnesty for political crimes surrounding the coup, which supporters say was prompted by Zelaya's insistence on holding a referendum on a constituent assembly that could have allowed him to stand for reelection.

The amnesty affects Zelaya himself, against whom an arrest warrant had been issued for treason and abuse of authority, among other crimes. But it also benefits Roberto Micheletti, who was named to lead the country after the coup.

Lobo himself had vowed to ensure safe conduct on Wednesday for Zelaya to finally leave Honduras.

The ousted leader was forced into exile in Costa Rica in the wake of his removal from power, but later secretly returned to Honduras on September 21 and sought refuge in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa.

The de facto government headed by Micheletti had made it impossible for Zelaya to leave the embassy, threatening to arrest him as soon as he set foot on Honduran soil.

But things have changed under Lobo: the new president vowed to accompany Zelaya to the airport, so he can finally accept an invitation from Dominican President Leonel Fernandez and travel to Santo Domingo.

On Tuesday, the Honduran Supreme Court exonerated the country's military leadership of charges related to Zelaya's expulsion. The court argued that military leaders acted in the face of a 'situation of real danger in Honduras' and of a threat of an 'institutional collapse of the state,' amid tensions in the weeks leading up to the ouster.

Even once these steps have been taken, however, Lobo is bound to walk on thin ice. The international community almost unanimously condemned the coup. The Organization of American States (OAS) suspended Honduras from membership, loans were cut off, aid was frozen and trade decreased.

The country, which was already suffering the effects of the global financial crisis, is believed to have lost around 400 million dollars as a result of the coup.

Even the election that Lobo won on November 29 has hardly been recognized by the international community, for having taken place under an undemocratic regime.

And the fact that Micheletti refused to the last to leave the presidency and to allow Zelaya to be reinstated symbolically for the power transfer hardly makes things easier for Lobo.

Many countries remained expectant Wednesday. Spain, for example, described the situation as 'abnormal' and noted that it needs to be 'corrected,' in the words of Juan Pablo de Laiglesia, secretary of state for Iberian-American affairs.

'With the honouring of engagements that Lobo has made, a full normalization of relations will take place,' De Laiglesia said.

When that happens, European Union and Latin American ambassadors can return to the troubled Central American nation.

The Honduran population does not generally hold high hopes for the quality of its democracy and modestly looks forward to a return to normality.

Whether this entails a concept of fairness remains secondary. The country has long been under the control of a few rich and powerful families. Lobo comes from one of them.

But then so did Zelaya, who took office as a right-wing liberal but nevertheless committed sacrilege by siding with the poor and aligning the country with the camp led by left-wing Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Lobo stands where Zelaya once stood: before huge challenges.

Over half the Honduran population lives in poverty. Many experts note that a redistribution of wealth and power from the country's elites to a broader portion of society could be key to getting Honduras out of its chronic economic and political crisis.

That was just what Zelaya claimed he wanted. And he did not do that well.