PREVIEW: Summits galore: Now, it's Russia, India, China in Brazil

By Helmut Reuter Apr 14, 2010, 2:14 GMT

Sao Paulo - Compared to the just-ended nuclear security summit in Washington, two upcoming gatherings in Brasilia may seem like small affairs.

But that could not be further from the truth.

The group comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contributed almost 50 per cent of world economic growth from 2000- 2008.

'From 2008-14, BRIC will account for 61.3 per cent of global growth,' said Brazilian Ambassador Roberto Jaguaribe, who is coordinating the BRIC summit.

All four BRIC leaders travelled earlier this week to Washington, where they joined a 47-nation summit to discuss ways to prevent nuclear terrorism and safeguard nuclear material.

Logical, then, that the leaders of Russia, China and India, having already travelled half way around the globe to get to Washington, would make use of the opportunity to drop in on Brazil.

At least they'll only have to change one time zone.

Analysts expect these four highly-populated, consumption-loving economies to overshadow the G-7 (the world's seven-largest economies) within 20 years. Whether the dollar can remain the global currency by then is uncertain, because BRIC countries are already searching for an alternative.

The message coming out of Brasilia is set to be clear: On issues of finance and economics, all paths lead to BRIC.

Chinese leader Hu Jintao will make the most of the multilateral summit, meeting one-on-one with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of the BRIC summit.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh were expected in Brasilia Thursday.

Before the BRIC summit, there is set to be a gathering of the so- called IBSA group (India, Brazil and South Africa). South African President Jacob Zuma is also expected Thursday in Brasilia, on the way home from Washington.

Trade among IBSA countries has risen from 6.5 billion dollars per year in 2002 to 26.4 billion dollars per year in 2008.

IBSA is set to discuss among other things the long-debated reform of the UN Security Council, according to South African government sources. Both Brazil and India are lobbying for permanent seats in the council.

BRIC countries (without South Africa) will pursue their talks Friday, focusing mainly on economic issues. A final declaration was to be issued, reportedly with calls for more dialogue at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Behind the scenes, however, discussion is expected to focus on how to cast aside the dollar as a global currency. Russia and China, in particular, are keen on dropping the 'greenback' and are looking for an alternative.

Diplomatic sources are busy making it clear that the BRIC summit does not target anyone in particular, not even the United States.

However, it is at least as obvious that countries like China and Brazil came out of the recent global financial crisis relatively unscathed, by comparison to the United States and European nations, and they want to use this as a platform for their demands.

'Exchanges among the four nations concerning major global challenges would be conducive to increasing the influence of emerging and developing countries, and promoting the development of multilateralism,' China's Deputy Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said of the meeting's goals.

Medvedev agreed.

'I am convinced that our cooperation has a great future,' he said. 'Even if we are still starting along the path, our alliance already has stable foundations.'

These foundations, however, did not prevent Russia from slipping into a deep recession during the crisis. Its GDP fell by 7.9 per cent in 2009 - the largest drop since 1994. And poor prospects remain into 2010, with a fall of 7.2 per cent expected in Russian GDP.

Summit host Brazil only lost 0.2 per cent of its economy last year, and it expects to grow by over 5 per cent in 2010.

And China beats them all. The Asian giant grew by an impressive 8.7 per cent in 2009, and the World Bank estimates growth this year at around 9.5 per cent.

Political signals are likely to abound even beyond Brasilia, as the leaders depart.

Hu for example is set to fly to Venezuela to see left-wing populist President Hugo Chavez. Barely two weeks ago, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was in Caracas, while Lula meets with the most outspoken critic of the United States every three months or so.