The Coup in Thailand - day 3 - the movie

By Scott Rosenberg, special to M&C Sep 22, 2006, 11:38 GMT

(WARNING: what you are about to read is a mixture of historical events and conjecture on the part of well placed individuals)

With all good intentions, I had not planned on reporting on the Coup – day three.

But despite a tight clamp on domestic news media, Thai web boards and TV SMS scrolling messages shut down, REAL information pertaining to the military ouster of former Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra is coming to light.

Thaksin Shinawatra may have planned the entire coup.

Now, I know, my reaction was the same, he is not smart enough to have planned such a complex series of events. But information that is just coming to light is the stuff movies are made of.

But as I lay out the intrigue (Hollywood LISTEN UP!), bear with me as we review the historical events.

In January 2005, Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai government became the first administration in 73 years of Thai democracy to complete a full four year term.

It may also be the beginning of the end of his government as they became a little “cocky” in their rule once they were elected in February 2005 with 377 of 500 seats in Parliament making them the country’s first one-party government in the 73 years since the end of the absolute monarchy.

In September 2005, the government intervened and cancelled an independent weekly television program moderated by Sondhi Limthongkul – an outspoken opponent of the government. Sondhi and follows became a hash vocal critic of the government – generating tens of thousands of followers in open air gatherings.

In January ’06 the Thaksin family announced the tax-free sale of their 49.6 per cent share in Shin corp. The telecom company was sold to Singapore’s state owned Temasek Holdings for about 73 billion Baht (approx. US$ 2.1 billion).

Massive anti-Thaksin rallies are held in Bangkok.

After the Constitution Court rejected a petition by 28 senators calling for Thaksin to be prosecuted as he violated the Constitution mixing business with politics, Thaksin, after first vowing not to quit, unexpectedly visited with his Majesty the King February 24th ‘06, coming out of the meeting dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections April 2nd.

Round one won by the Royals. No one knows what was said behind closed doors but the message seems to be clear – stop the protests, clear house and move forward.

But as protests continued and the list of credible opposition to the government continued – including Thaksin’s former political mentor Chamlong Srimuang and his “Dharma Army” of Buddhist monks – the three main opposition parties announced a boycott of the April elections saying Thaksin was not sincere in committing to political reform.

March ’06 some 100,000 anti Thaksin demonstrators (Thais refer to these large gatherings as “the mob”) gathered in Bangkok, causing massive traffic jams and businesses to close.

April 2nd voters went to the polls and the Thai Rak Thai party easily won a majority (since there was no opposition – readers that have said the TRT government was democratic – please note).

Thaksin said he would not accept the premiership and wanted out of politics and “went on vacation” (collecting his PM salary all the while of course).

On April 25th HM the King made a public address (a rare event) calling for the nation's courts to solve the national crisis.

On May 8, The Constitution Court nullified the April election paving the way for new elections.

May 23rd, Thaksin decides he liked politics and returns leading his first Cabinet meeting since stepping aside seven weeks earlier.  Press and the people attach a new title to his and other ministers, “caretaker”.

On June 22nd the Election Commission ruled that Thaksin’s party broke the law during the April campaign because they paid candidates from minor parties to run against them in the April poll.

And now the intrigue starts.

On July 13th, Thaksin announced intelligence agencies had unearthed a possible assassination plot against him.  In normal circumstances such an announcement would not be made public – it would be “taken care of”.  Was Thaksin trying to rally sympathy for himself and his caretaker government by having the military “kick him out”?

On July 21st, HM the King signed a decree setting new elections for October 15th.  Again a very unusual move on the part of the Monarchy to get involved in political affairs.

Now all the while, there had been communication between Thaksin’s government and the Royal Privy Council headed by Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, an advisor to HM the King, who had been Prime Minster from 1980 to 1988.

The relationship between the government and Privy Counselor Prem was cantankerous at best – some now saying grounds for lèse majesté. One can only imagine that the Royal Family was fuming against Thaksin who openly (as much as any Thai would dare do) insulted, in word and deed, representatives of the Monarchy.

On August 25th, Thaksin accused a group of military officers of plotting to kill him with a car bomb found outside his home. For those that know of the old Keystone Cops movies – Thaksin’s story line was as convoluted as those bumbling cop movies.

On September 7th, elections were postponed as election commissioners were still being sought to replace those convicted of illegally aiding Thaksin and his party.
 
The former Thai leader left home a few days later to first attend the 6th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in the Finnish capital of Helsinki from Sept. 10-11, then the Cuban capital of Havana for the 14th Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit, scheduled for Sept. 14-16, and after a two-day rest in London, a trip to New York to attend the 61st United Nations General Assembly from Sept. 17-21.

Reports now coming out are that the former Prime Minister and his entourage (several government aides and family members) left from the Air Force airbase carrying 56 bags – why the Air  Force base when he generally takes chartered flights from the public airport? Because there was no baggage checks at the Air Force base.

Conveniently, at the same time, a number of government ministers also were out of the country: (now former) agriculture minister Sudarat Keyuraphan went to Paris with her family, former interior minister Kongsak Wantana was heading for Germany, former finance minister Thanong Bidaya was in Singapore attending the IMF and World Bank meeting, former foreign minister Kantathi Supamongkhon was in France, while former deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak was in France but returned to Singapore instead of Bangkok as planned.

Widely reported in the press was a statement Thaksin made on his flight out of the country: "The society and press in Thailand are easily to get bored. I give you an example. When General Prem Tinsulanond was the prime minister, the media praised him as a capable and good figure. But after eight years, all the newspapers criticized his performance," he said.

When pressed to talk about a possible replacement as PM he declined to reveal who would replace him for now. "No matter what rumors said about who would replace me, it is only me who know," he said.

At this point however, insiders are saying that Thaksin had been given marching orders through the Privy Counsel – either give up power peacefully or “get-out”.

But Thaksin and his aides had plotted a series of events that he hopped would rally the population behind his beleaguered government.

Back in Bangkok,

The media talked about the possibility of a military coup to force Thaksin out and the opposition called for a massive protest on Wednesday Sept 20th, which they hoped would be enough to keep Thaksin from coming back to the country.

The government knew of the protests and it is said Thaksin instructed Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Newin Chidchob, to disrupt peace on Wednesday. The clash between pro- and anti-government mobs, if allowed to happen, could have set the stage for the government to declare a state of emergency, seen as a prelude to purge professional soldiers and anti-government campaigners.

In the government's game-plan, First Infantry Division commander Maj-General Prin Suwanthat and Second Cavalry Division commander Maj-General Sanit Phrommas were Thaksin's trusted allies designated to sway troops from General Sonthi  (who had been invited to a meeting with Thaksin before the former PM left the country but did not attend, sending a note that he was busy in the South of Thailand, while really still in Bangkok – that apparently did not sit well with the former PM).

The day of the military takeover began with rival camps trying to outwit and outlast one another.

(OK, I want Mark Burnett – “Survivor” to produce and Ridley Scott – ‘Gladiator’,’Black Hawk Down’ to direct this movie)

With the green light from the Defense Ministry, the Army mobilized troops for a "routine exercise to test combat-readiness" in the morning of September 19th. Crack infantry troops from Kanchanaburi, special warfare units from Lop Buri and cavalry divisions from Prachin Buri and Phetchabun were ordered to descend on Bangkok.

Supreme Commander General Ruengroj Mahasaranont, Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Navy chief Admiral Sathirapan Keyanon, Air Chief Marshal Chalit Pukbhasuk and National Police chief General Kowit Watana monitored the "exercise" closely.

The troops' mobilisation happened against a backdrop of two important factors - Thaksin was poised to sack Sonthi, while government politicians, namely Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Newin Chidchob, were engineering to disrupt peace on Wednesday.

If the two were to have succeeded in their mission, the military would have cracked down on the anti-government rally planned for Wednesday – possibly causing bloodshed. However, key battalion commanders in Bangkok rallied around Sonthi by early on Tuesday afternoon.

Third Army Area commander Lt-General Saprang Kalayanamitr and his counterpart in the Second Army Area, Lt-General Sujet Watanasuk, pitched in with unconditional support for their Army chief.

Provincial troops raced against time to reach the capital in order to stage a show of power.

While their fellow officers from the Pre-Cadet Class 10, seen as the pro-government clique, kept a low profile, Prin and Sanit were increasingly isolated as the day progressed.

From New York, Thaksin personally kept tabs on the unfolding power struggle between the top military officers.

His top lieutenants in Bangkok, including Chidchai Vanasatidya, Prommin Lertsuridej and Thamarak Isarangura, were delegated to stand on the sidelines and await his instructions.

After the majority of Thaksin's Pre-Cadet Class 10 allies, including First Army Area commander Lt-General Anupong Paochinda, sided with their fellow soldiers, Prin stood down.

Sanit summoned his cavalry troops from Prachin Buri before redirecting them to perform guard duties on the outskirts of Bangkok.

With the pro-government clique retreating, Thaksin placed several phone calls (one to his wife Pojaman Shinawatra - maybe alerting her “the shit was about to hit the fan” – she cancelled plans for a later flight and  flew out of Bangkok early Tuesday evening with former PM office minister Newin Chidchob supposedly to meet up with Thaksin’s daughter in London).

But quite possibly, Thaksin’s plans went awry: the Asia Times Online reported that a well-placed source with senior army connections said, on condition of anonymity that Thaksin had attempted to pre-empt the coup by ordering the arrest of chief Privy Councilor Prem Tinsulonda, the king’s chief advisor. For undisclosed reasons, that police-led mission failed.

Also, one of Thaksin’s calls was to General Sonthi to negotiate terms. The call was too late – Sondhi had consolidated power and Thaksin was perceived as having no credibility left.

Worst of all, the general public, did not oppose the military overthrow – it seemed they were pleased. Thaksin’s plans had failed.  He was truly, as the deposed PM said, a man without a job.

But the really juicy rumor and innuendo begin here – while Thaksin is said to own real estate in London, he is presently staying in a hotel. Why not his home?

Rumor is, the real estate is not really his but owned by members of the Russian mafia. The man without a job now longer has any power to help his “landlords” here in Thailand.

But I stop here – HEY HOLLYWOOD – want to read the abstract of my screenplay?

Copyright 2006 by Monsters and Critics