More protests possible, say Myanmar's dissidents  

Oct 31, 2007, 5:48 GMT

Yangon - While human Rights groups fear Myanmar's military junta is holding the main activists who didn't flee the country after September's pro-democracy protests, watching from the wings is a small group of dissidents who have so far escaped the midnight raids.

Some of them have already served at least one stretch in prison for their part in democracy demonstrations back in 1988. This time, they have kept their heads down low; a second arrest would earn them extra wrath from the authorities.

These so-called '88 Generation' activists, while uplifted by the second wave of protests, are split over what lies ahead.

Some of them are fearful that the demonstrations will lead to nothing, while others say they believe the barbarity of the crackdown - at least 10 people were slaughtered - will drive the international community to force Myanmar's dictators to yield at least some power to the opposition.

'I feel like change is in the air,' said one Yangon-based dissident and senior journalist. 'Although 20 years ago the protests were much more bloody (the death toll then was estimated at around 3,000) this time there is the Internet, there are thousands of bloggers, there is the international media, pictures on CNN, Al Jazeera. It's all there. Everyone could see the soldiers shooting and the monks being beaten.'

Another former political prisoner, who watched the protests in Mandalay from his bedroom window, agreed.

'I believe there is a new horizon for the people of Myanmar. The protests have drawn the world's attention. I am hopeful the UN and other countries can force the government to make some changes. China will help; it is worried about the Olympics and it will work with the UN.'

China, a close friend of the regime, has been hesitant to come down hard on Myanmar and, along with the rest of Asia, does not support sanctions against the junta.

The dissident and writer said he supports sanctions and a tourist boycott, a view largely championed by exiled Myanmar groups but not often by people inside the country because the brunt of any economic hardship is borne more by the general population rather then the generals.

His colleague, another former prisoner of the regime, said he doesn't trust the junta and its recent moves to appease the international community.

'It's just another trick. They trick us and trick us... one trick after another.'

In recent days the government has arranged for detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to meet with a junta liaison officer, some prisoners have been released - although thousands, say activists, are still behind bars - and UN representatives including special envoy Ibrahim Gambari have been invited back into the country

He said such moves are aimed at fooling Myanmar people - state press also tout these gestures - as well as the international community. 'They are buying time,' he said. 'Why should they want to give up power?

'We need more demonstrations before anything will change,' he said, shaking his head.

Another veteran of the Generation 88 protestors said she is worried that the public has lost its faith in the main opposition, the National League for Democracy (NLD), which took a frontline position in the tail end of the monk-led protests.

'The NLD should have offered something to the junta before the violence started. Now people have lost their confidence in them, they think they can't lead properly. Now they and Aung San Suu Kyi are in a trap.'

'The regime is a joke,' said the Yangon journalist. 'They don't know how to run the economy. They just do what they bloody well like.'

An estimated 40 per cent of the national budget is spent on the military, compared with around 3 per cent on health. 'They earned more than 2 billion dollars from natural gas exports last year, and health and education are a joke in this country,' the journalist said.

But the system is cracking from within, he said. 'The protests are just the tip of the iceberg. The army is facing mass desertions. Many soldiers are not being paid so they escape and get a new identity.'

He said the junta itself is torn by rivalry between senior leaders aged in their seventies and younger regional commanders in their fifties and also by rifts between senior military brass from the Defence Services Academy who have worked their way up through rank and file and the university educated ministers from officer training school.

'There is a lot of friction in the government,' he said, and therein lies Myanmar's hope for change.