KMT win no guarantee of success in presidential vote

Jan 13, 2008, 13:43 GMT

Taipei - Taiwan's opposition party the KMT won a landslide victory in parliament election on Saturday, but analysts warned that this victory does not guarantee KMT's winning the upcoming presidential election.

After the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won the parliament polls, sweeping 81 seats in the 113-seat legislature, KMT supporters set up fireworks and popped open the champagne to celebrate.

President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gained only 27 seats, and Chen resigned as DPP party chairman to shoulder responsibility for the election defeat.

Taiwan newspapers hailed KMT's parliament election win as paving the way for KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou to win the presidential election on March 22, as President Chen will step down on May 20 after having served two four-year terms.

But analysts warned that KMT's parliament polls win will not necessarily translate into victory in the presidential polls.

'There are too many unpredictables. In the 2004 presidential election, opinion polls showed KMT candidate Lien Chan would win, but on the eve of the election, Chen was hit by two bullets and sympathetic votes helped him win a second term,' said political analyst Li Chi-chiang.

Li was referring to the shooting incident which occurred when Chen was shot at while riding in a jeep during his campaign. The government claimed an assassin fired two shots at Chen, leaving a scar on Chen's stomache, but the opposition suspected the shooting was staged to sway votes.

Chen won re-election by a scant 0.2 per cent, or 29,518 votes, over Lien.

Hong Yung-tai, a professor of politics at the National Taiwan University, also foresees a tough fight between Ma and Hsieh.

'The DPP's fall was caused by President Chen's planning Hsieh's election campaign and designing the tactics. Now that Chen has resigned as DPP chairman after DPP's parliament election defeat, Chen has stopped leading Hsieh's campaign, and Hsieh will re-design his campaign strategy,' Hong said.

'Both Ma and Hsieh will make adjustments in their campaign strategy, so there could be more changes in the run-up to the presidential election,' he said.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), formerly the ruling party in China, fled to Taiwan after losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949, to set up its government-in-exile.

It ruled Taiwan with an iron fist until 2000 when it lost power the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chen became the president.

Chen will step down after the March 22 presidential election. The KMT is seeking to regain power from the DPP.

In the past eight years, Chen and DPP's popularity have been falling due to Taipei-Beijing tension, Taiwan's ethnic division and sluggish economy.

Taiwan-China ties have been strained due to Chen's advocating Taiwan's sovereignty and seeking Taiwan's entry into the United Nations.

The China-friendly KMT, on the other hand, promotes a softer stance by calling for peaceful co-existence with China.

KMT's presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has promised that if he becomes president, he will open direct air and sea links with China and will not discuss Taiwan-China unification in his term.

But for many Taiwanese, who succeeds Chen Shui-bian is not important. What they are concerned about is Taiwan's economy.

'Whoever wins the presidential election, our life will go on the same. We have to work and make money. Taiwan's economy has deteriorated and many Taiwanese have gone to work in China. I am not interested in politics. I only want a good life, want to make money and support my family,' Taipei tailor Wang Ping-wei said.