Bangkok - The weekend summit of the Association of
South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) provides an excellent opportunity
for host Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to show the region that
after three tumultuous years, Thailand is back to normal.
The visiting leaders need not worry that Bangkok's airports will
be shut down by rampaging protestors, partly because the summit will
be held near Hua Hin, a beach resort 130 kilometres south-west of the
capital.
And while in Hua Hin - called the 'royal resort' because Thai King
Bhumibol Adulyadej has a summer palace there - the Asian leaders are
unlikely to see the kind of unruly anti-government demonstrations
that last year forced the previous government to postpone the summit,
originally scheduled for mid-December in the northern city of Chiang
Mai, a political stronghold of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin, whose controversial 2001-06 rule started a movement to
obliterate him, is quickly disappearing from Thailand's political
limelight.
While the pro-Thaksin 'red shirts' continue to hold protests,
including a demonstration of 20,000 Tuesday outside Government House,
the movement's ties to Thaksin, their peripatetic fugitive leader who
has been in self-imposed exile since August, might prove a
disadvantage.
'Thaksin is fading so fast it's unbelievable,' said Chris Baker,
co-author with academic Pasuk Phongpaichit of several books on
contemporary Thai politics.
As Thaksin's star fades, the political forces that his premiership
once threatened have made a comeback, political analysts said.
'There has been an institutionalization of the 2006 coup, an
empowering of the military in the system,' said Chaturon Chaisaeng, a
former leader of Thaksin's now-defunct Thai Rak Thai party.
With a doubling of the defence budget since the September 19, 2006
coup that toppled Thaksin, and an Election Commission, Constitutional
Court and Anti-Corruption Commission all headed by appointees of the
post-coup government, the military is content.
'The army is like a big mafia in the system,' Chaturon said. 'They
don't need a coup anymore. They can use the People's Alliance for
Democracy to overthrow any government they don't like.'
The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - the anti-Thaksin
movement that occupied Government House, the seat of the government,
and closed down Bangkok's airports last year while the army looked on
- has little reason to attack Abhisit's government, which includes
Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya, a former PAD leader.
Abhisit was voted prime minister on December 15 after the
Constitutional Court dissolved the then-ruling, pro-Thaksin People
Power Party, paving the way for a new Democrat-led coalition
government.
The coalition became possible when a key former Thaksin ally,
Newin Chidchob, switched sides to support the Democrats. In return,
his faction was given the Industry and Transport portfolios, two of
Thailand's big-budget ministries.
Coalition governments are always fragile, but given the economic
challenges Thailand faces this year, there is optimism that the
partners would bury their differences long enough to deal with the
crisis.
The Democrats have experience in tackling economic crises. They
picked up the pieces after the 1997 Asian financial crisis broke in
Bangkok, and Abhisit's economic team has moved swiftly to moderate
the impact of the current global financial crisis.
An emergency economic stimulus package and measures to ease the
pain of the poor were quickly put in place.
'So far, they have made the right moves,' German-Thai Chamber of
Commerce director Stefan Buerkle said.
The articulate Abhisit, 44, who studied economics at Oxford
University, is also making the right moves in terms of bolstering
international confidence in Thailand, a campaign that is to continue
this week at the 14th ASEAN Summit Friday through Sunday and at the
Group of 20 summit in London in April.
Abhisit - although no doubt embarassed by the military's recent
expulsion of boat people from Myanmar's Rohingya ethnic minority from
Thailand's southern shores, which has drawn international criticism -
is not expected to seriously challenge the military. And the brass is
not likely to challenge him.
'We're back to multipolar politics,' Baker said. 'Abhisit is doing
his job, and the military will do their job.'
Prior to Thaksin's premiership, when for six years the leading
players in Thai politics were actually elected politicians, political
power was essentially shared among the military, the
bureaucracy/aristocracy and the political parties.
After three years of tumultuous politics, that power-sharing
arrangement appeared to be back.
'It's been a hell of a messy process, but they've got back,' Baker
said.
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