ANALYSIS: Abhisit Vejjajiva - Bangkok patrician for prime minister?

By Peter Janssen Jun 14, 2007, 7:15 GMT

Bangkok - Chances of Abhisit Vejjajiva - the Oxford-educated 43-year-old leader of the Democrat Party - becoming Thailand's next prime minister have risen in recent weeks in tandem with the downfall of his once arch rival - Thaksin Shinawatra.

On May 30, Thailand's Constitution Tribunal aquitted the Democrat Party of committing fraud during the April 2, 2006 election, while on the same day it dissolved Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party and banned its 111 executives, including Thaksin, from politics for the next five years.

Then on June 11, the graft-buster Assets Examination Committee (AEC) decided to freeze the bank accounts of Thaksin and his close family members, tying up some 73 billion baht (2 billion dollars) in cash, although about 28 billion baht of that seems to have slipped the net. Thaksin's cash was always one of his winning assets in Thailand's system of money politics.

Both developments were good news for the Democrats, Thailand's oldest political party, which despite is venerable six decades of experience was soundly trounced in the past three elections by the Thai Rak Thai, now defunct.

As the Democrats' leader, Abhisit's bid for the premiership has gone from very remote to very real.

'The way things have turned out over the past two weeks he's the front-runner,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. 'The Democrats have become the default party.'

With the TRT dissolved and decapitated, the Democrats face little competition in the upcoming general election.

Thailand's military junta, which ousted Thaksin with a coup on September 19, 2006, has promised to hold an election by December.

A lot could happen between now and December. For instance, Thaksin, who is currently in exile, might come back to Thailand and create political chaos in the hopes of derailing the corruption cases against him to reclaim his frozen millions.

Or Young Turk factions within the military could stage a counter-coup in an effort to get even tougher with Thaksin and his followers.

Abhisit claims not to be too upset by these possibilities.

'Whatever happens in the short term will lead to an election by the end of the year,' Abhisit told a packed audience at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) Wednesday night.

'Even in the worst case scenario that there were another coup, I cannot see any other option but for the new coup leaders to hold a new election within 60 to 90 days,' he said.

Whenever the election, with Thai Rak Thai out of the running the outcome is likely to be a coalition government with the Democrats as the largest party, given their strong following in the southern provinces and Bangkok.

A Democrat-led government would certainly be welcomed by the foreign business community and Thailand's Western allies, which have been upset by the military comeback and some of the economic policies of the current military-installed cabinet.

Abhisit, a fluent and eloquent English speaker who earned a degree in philosophy at Oxford, knows how to push the right buttons for foreigners.

'Thailand has thrived on being an open economy for a good four to five decades. We intend to stay to that path,' said Abhisit, who, for instance, faults the current government's policy to alter the Foreign Business Act at a time when Thailand needs to stay competitive.

Such sentiments cheer the foreign business community, as do Abhisit's strong stance against corruption, the need to keep the military out of politics and to hold free and fair elections. But many wonder whether Abhisit has what it takes to win over the hearts and minds of his own people.

'Abhisit is not seen as a man of the people. He's a Bangkok patrician,' said Thitinan. 'What I am worried about is we will have an election and the Democrats will crawl back to power by default but they will not be representative of Thailand.'

The Democrats have never had a following in Thailand's impoverished north-eastern provinces where some 50 per cent of the Thai population resides and where Thaksin's populist Thai Rak Thai party had its strongest following.

While the Democrats' prospects in the next election may be looking bright, a victory by default may be no guarantee for political stability.

'If a substantial number of people cannot have a legitimate way to express themselves via their political parties, it does not bode well for democratic development and moreover it may lead to another political crisis in the near future,' warned Chaturon Chaisaeng, one of the leading Thai Rak Thai politicians banned from politics for the next five years.