ANALYSIS: ASEAN fears Myanmar "disintegration" if pushed toO far

Nov 18, 2007, 6:44 GMT

Singapore - Despite mounting international pressure for tougher action against errant member Myanmar, the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is not expected to do anything out of the ordinary when its leaders meet this week in Singapore.

While the 13th ASEAN Leaders' Summit comes just two months after a violent crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in Myanmar, the crisis did not merit a special agenda during the annual meeting of the 10-member regional bloc.

Officials, however, assured that the Myanmar issue would be discussed during the summit, when the leaders were expected to ask Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein to explain the junta's violent response to the mass protests led by Buddhist monks.

After the meeting, the leaders would probably again express disappointment, impatience or even 'revulsion' over the recent crackdowns in Yangon as well as call on the military junta to hasten the implementation of democratic reforms as promised.

While such statements can be scathing, the rebukes often seem to be moves merely aimed at appeasing critics, including key dialogue partners the European Union and the United Sates, rather than a real step towards action for the 40-year-old organization.

Diplomats said the group's non-confrontational attitude towards Myanmar stems from fears that any forceful bid to push the military junta out of power would lead to the country's disintegration, much like the Balkans.

'The fear is that you break up Myanmar if you use more than threat of force because (opposition leader) Aung San Suu Kyi, despite all her good intentions, doesn't have the strength to do governance,' one South-East Asian diplomat who requested anonymity said.

The diplomat warned that if Myanmar plunges to civil war, neighbours such as China, Thailand, Cambodia and India would rush in to stake a claim on lands near their borders.

'If there is no leadership, Myanmar will disintegrate,' the official added. 'Would you want a Yugoslavia in your backyard? Why should your backyard be in that negative situation?'

The diplomat noted that constructive engagement with Myanmar was still the best option now since ASEAN does not have the military 'capacity' to do much and critics such as the US and the EU have failed to 'do more than what they are already doing now.'

ASEAN groups Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.

Even with the scheduled signing on Tuesday of a landmark charter that supposedly commits all members to the principles of democracy and protection of human rights, not much change can be expected with the way ASEAN deals with Myanmar.

Without provisions for punitive actions, such as expulsion or suspension, against erring members, the charter leaves it to ASEAN leaders to decide if sanctions are necessary and if so, what punishments to mete out.

Democracy and human rights groups, the US Senate and other critics have called on ASEAN to either expel or suspend Myanmar. They have also urged the bloc not to allow Yangon to sign the charter until the crisis is resolved.

But ASEAN leaders were not likely to heed any of these calls when they meet in Singapore on Tuesday.

While Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted that the situation in Myanmar was 'not sustainable,' he also admitted that ASEAN's influence on Myanmar is limited.

'Myanmar is a member of the ASEAN family,' Lee told the Straits Times. 'No one wishes a family member ill.'

'What else can you really do,' added one Filipino diplomat ahead of the summit.

The official said ASEAN supports efforts by the special envoy of the UN Secretary General, Ibrahim Gambari, to jump-start dialogues between the military junta and opposition groups towards the implementation of genuine democratic reforms.

'The feeling of ASEAN is let's see how far the Gambari process can go and at this stage, coming up with alternate mechanisms may not necessarily be helpful to Gambari,' the diplomat said. 'You might create a problem if you establish another group.'

One diplomat said that if such critics as the US and the EU were so adamant for change in Myanmar, 'why don't they do it themselves instead of yapping at ASEAN?'