Asia-Pacific News
PREVIEW: Personalities trump politics in Australian poll
Nov 20, 2007, 3:28 GMT
Sydney - Australian elections are decided by the type of people who in other countries have never been inside a polling booth - compulsory voting sees to that.
Because the apathetic tick boxes along with the party faithful, opinion pollsters can get it wrong. Prime Minister John Howard is hoping they have.
His Liberal-led coalition is well behind in all the 100 opinion polls published since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader in December. On Saturday, an emphatic loss is forecast for a government in power since 1996.
Respected pollster Sol Lebovic reckoned around 10 per cent of those who re-elected Howard's conservatives in 2004 have switched sides. For this reason, Lebovic warned, 'It's not surprising for some of them to have second thoughts when they get to the ballot box.'
To get a majority in the 150-member Parliament, Labor needs to win 16 seats from the Liberal-National coalition. It's a big task.
Howard, 68, is campaigning on his prowess as an economic manager: unemployment at a 33-year low, the doubling of household income in a decade, the clearance of all government debt and interest rates half of what they were when Labor was last in power.
His report card this time is not as sparkly. There have been six interest rate rises since he powered to victory in 2004 on the rash promise of keeping the cost of borrowing at record lows.
Also angering voters is a change in workplace legislation that many believe skewed the power to employers and away from employees. Parents worry about the security of their own jobs and the weaker bargaining position of their children as they enter the workforce.
'If we lose, it will become the conventional wisdom of Australian politics that you can't reform industrial relations,' Howard said, 'and I think that will be a long-term tragedy for this country. It will be the first time in 25 years that we've turned our back on an essential economic reform.'
Rudd, a cherubic former diplomat, has in his shadow cabinet a slew of former union officials. Howard maintained they are primed to bring back the bad old days when strikes were frequent and wage rises jacked up inflation, which in turn pushed up interest rates.
If, in the final week of the campaign, Howard can persuade around 400,000 voters that a Labor government would bring on this scenario, he could score a famous victory.
Howard is not hated, but most said he was selfish in not handing leadership over to Liberal deputy Peter Costello last year to let a new face lead the coalition. People hanker for change.
For Howard to win, he has just days to scare people out of voting for Rudd.
The Mandarin-speaking Rudd is not at all frightening. Competent, clever and remarkably assured for someone who would become Australia's least-experienced prime minister, Rudd presents himself as a sensible alternative.
Not exciting, not charismatic, he looks set to coast into office on borrowed policies. He would stick to balanced budgets, fight inflation and empower the private sector, he said. Rudd even denied his Labor is a party of the left.
Rudd, 50, also said he would jettison the least popular of Howard's policies. Australia's 580 combat troops would be recalled from Iraq, and he would sign on to the Kyoto Protocol on fighting climate change, leaving the United States as the only major industrialized country not to ratify it.
Rudd can afford to sit tight and avoid mistakes as polling day nears. Howard, and Costello, can't.
'Once the decision is cast, there's no going back,' said Costello, 50, who Howard said would succeed him mid-term if the coalition wins Saturday. 'You can't say on the Sunday, 'I'd like to take it all back.' That's it. It's your job, it's your mortgage and it's your business.'
© 2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-AgenturCOMMENT
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Older Talkback
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You are wrong about interest rates:
As you will see from the Reserve Bank of Australia website. Interest rates when Labor were last in power were not double that of the Liberal/National Coalition. Infact, the current interest rate is only 0.25% less thn what it was when Howard came to power, and is higher than the average under the Keating Labor Government. It was Labor economic reforms (floating Australian Dollar, Reducing tariffs, opening the Labor market) that reduced interest rates. NOT any special reform from the Liberal Party. Infact, the GST (their only true economic reform), increases the pressure on interest rates by increasing the cost of living. This farce that Labor causes higher interest rates has to stop.
How many times does this weak article spew the liberal party line? Since when have househould incomes doubled? I think you must be confused with house prices. It looks like the author has not much interst in politics either. Please try to be a little more balanced next time.
I can't wait for sunday when I can wake up and know that the leader of my country is not a racist closed minded old man who uses fear and persecution of racial minorities for his own political gains.
Vote out howard!!!
our thriving economy is not something that just happened by accident, nor is the fact that our once 96 billion dollar debt has been reduced to zero. Howard may be boring, stuffy, and a bit old fashioned - but that has absolutely nothing to do with running a country. Ill take an old fashioned, funny eye browed Johnny, with his brilliant record in economic management, than St Kevin the spin doctor any day of the week. John Howard has earnt my vote with 11 years of brilliant economic management, the result of which is my interest rates are well under the 17% they were under Hawke, and I have had no trouble finding employment in the last decade.
Hey Andrew - I'd rather pay 17% of 80K for a house than 7% of 500.
The percentage has come down, but the value is getting to the stage where your average Aussie can't afforf to buy a house without putting mum and dads' up as colateral.
Couple that with the people who have made it into the market and for the most part they don't recall what it was like under labor...
It's a really borderline sort of call this election. I would like to move to a government that has a more socially responsible agenda that doesn't lock up geniuine refugee kids in detnetion centres, supports invasions, does nothing about Aboriginal or climate change policy til the last five minutes of their eleven year regin.
ho-hum - i smell the blood of the coalition! Can't wait until saturday to vote out the selfish untruthful liberal/national party coalition who i feel have been squandering tax payers money on programmes to enhance their political standing - not necessarily for the good of all aussies. Yes we have a well funded treasury but i guess that comes from the GST which we were never going to have! Yes, it's the GST we have all paid - rich and poor - and it is big! How big we don't really know, but consider what the average australian household pays in non-refundable GST each week when shopping and buying petrol. Staggering amounts of money not being put to use in our hospitals and public education to name a few areas that desperately need money. Bring on saturday - go howard go out!!
Household income has not doubled, however in a nation with a $1.1trillion dollar economy serving only a population of 21 million people, 2 million of which live below the poverty line ordinary people don't see much for their hard work, and life for many Australians is homelessness and poverty, while the millionaires turn into billionaires.
We should be leading the world on alternative energy however this conservative old government stuck in a 1950's time warp has only 6 months ago recognised climate change is real, I am ashamed that Australia has been lacking in innovation for the past 11 1/2 years.
James - If you believe that Howard is a 'brilliant economic manager', I am very surprised that you have the intelligence to find the polling place. Interest rates were something like 21 -22% when JH was Treasurer, weren't they?
I have just read your article and am realising you obviously have written this in a tonque and cheek style. No informed person would have written this without wanting to look like a fool.
Jack, if you wake up on Sunday and Rudd is in charge, trust me that you wont be sleeping peacefully for much longer. What's left of the moral fabric of Australia will be out the window if Rudd and his henchmen win this election. If you disagree, then you're far too young to have a clue what you're talking about and so you deserve the wake up call that Labor will spell for your generation. You have been warned.
Labour have been trying to re write history in regards to their economic credentials. The fact is no country has to have a recession, that's what labour gave us remember the 'recession we had to have' ? or are all of the Kevin07 followers too young. Labour have always stuffed up, remember the
dismissal ? That's right one of their prime ministers WAS SACKED. A prime minister sacked and a recession we had to have, what a legacy !
You try hiring someone now, it's hard to find people because the employment is so full. Wages are high, industrial disputes are the lowest they have ever been, interest rates are low and the government has paid off the Labour governments deb't, maybe that was their legacy, 98 billion dollars of debt ?
Take a look at your state governments most of them are a shambles and have failed. Health and Education are rudds big issues, however they are State run, mmm who has failed, what side of politics ?
Howard was just interviewed on Kerry O'Briens show. Kerry very neatly explained that when Howard was tresurer in 1984 the 90-bill rate was at 22% AND the only reason home loan rates were at 13.5% was that they were CAPPED at13.5% by the government. The rate would have been much higher (maybe even 22%) if it were not for that cap. Remember that when you see those stupid ads.
Unemployment in Australia is now around 4%, the lowest for over 30 years. We have paid off all the government debt created by the stupid Australian Labor Party and our economy is booming. All people who vote Labor say is that John Howard just got lucky. They cannot admit the truth that Howard and also Peter Costello are good economic managers. When Labor was in power from 1983-1996 unemployment averaged 8.5%. The Liberals have halved it to 4%. You only have to read some of the comments by people who vote Labor to see what sort of people they are. One comment said we are now all homeless in Australia. They cannot admit the truth.
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Real McCoyNov 20th, 2007 - 04:29:10
It seems that the Liberal party machine has been hard at work, spreading propaganda to the press again. Howard's government is not responsible for the current 'good times' in Australia -- we are riding the back of a resources boom which is about to peter out, leaving us with a rising inflation rate, rising interest rates, astronomical housing prices and a monthly trade deficit of over $3 billion. And of course, once Labor wins, the Liberal party will disavow any responsibility for the upcoming hard times - just you watch and see.
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