ANALYSIS: Thailand's fugitive former premier fights back

By Peter Janssen Nov 19, 2008, 6:17 GMT

Bangkok - It's been hard times for Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the man who dominated the country's politics between 2001 to 2006 and continues to be the central character in the kingdom's on-going political drama.

Even with his brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, in place as prime minister and the current cabinet packed with his cronies and nominees, Thaksin has been unable to prevent a series of legal setbacks that have seen him reduced from Thailand's most powerful politician to a homeless, wifeless, fugitive from the law.

Predictably, Thaksin has not taken his new status lying down.

'He is desperate,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's prestigious Chulalongkorn University. 'He has little to lose. His money is frozen, his family scattered. He's homeless and a homeless person is a dangerous person.

Thaksin's fall from grace arguably started in August when the Bangkok Criminal Court found his wife Pojaman guilty of tax evasion and sentenced her to three years in jail.

Thaksin and Pojaman reacted to the verdict by seeking court permission to attend the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing, where they promptly booked flights to London, arriving on August 11 to an extended stay in self-exile.

On October 21, Thaksin had his own legal reckoning when the Supreme Court for Political Office Holders found him guilty of abuse of power in 2003 for allowing his wife to successfully bid on a plot of prime Bangkok land at a government auction.

Then, adding insult to injury, the UK announced in early November that it had revoked both Thaksin's and Pojaman's tourist visas, in light of their court convictions, depriving them of their home away from home in London.

The Shinawatras own at least one residential building in London.

'The visa was the last straw,' said a close Thaksin associate, who blamed the UK visa decision on Thaksin's political enemies, even through the pro-Thaksin People Power Party is running the current government and theoretically controls the foreign ministry.

Although Thaksin has been denied a visa to Great Britain, the convicted premier still holds a diplomatic passport which his brother-in-law, Prime Minister Somchai, has refused to revoke.

Shortly after losing his British visa, Thaksin started to step up his offensive.

He vowed to make a phone-in speech to a rally on December 14th at which he will name all his political enemies.

There is some scepticism that he will indeed name all of his political enemies, as they are known to be many and some rather illustrious.

The Thaksin offensive gathered steam almost immediately after the nation came out of three days of official mourning to mark the royal funeral of Princess Galyani Vadhana, Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej's elder sister who died on January 2 at age 84.

On Monday, Thaksin took out advertisements in both the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal, with his picture prominently displayed, to publicize his newly set up Building a Better Future Foundation, supposedly along the lines of a Ford Foundation or Rockefeller Foundation.

'The foundation is an effective tool to tell the world public who he is, while telling the Thai people directly that they should look to the future,' said a Thaksin associate, who asked to remain anonymous.

Most observers just see it as a publicity stunt abroad to accompany Thaksin's domestic push for a political comeback.

In fact, Thaksin has made it clear that he will announce his decision to re-enter Thailand's political fray during his planned phone-in speech to supporters on December 14.

'He has decided that he no longer wants to be attacked and cornered,' PPP member Jatuporn Promphan told The Nation newspaper.

Jatuporn confirmed that Thaksin had divorced his wife on November 14 as part of his decision to reenter politics, presumably to protect her and her assets from any fallout should his comeback fail.

Thaksin's main motivation for launching his offensive remains a mystery.

'It's very difficult to psychoanalyze him,' said Chris Baker, who has co-authored several books about Thaksin and recent Thai history. 'We don't know how much he is motivated by his money and how much he really believes that his coming back as the politcal saviour of Thailand.'

Thai authorities have frozen 76 billion baht (2.2 billion dollars) in Shinawatra accounts at Thai banks since Thaksin was toppled by a coup on September 19, 2006.

One thing is certain: Thaksin has divided Thailand like no other politician before him and his return to real power would inevitably lead to a deeper division in Thai society.

'I can't conceive of Thailand going back under Thaksin,' said Thitinan. 'No matter what he does the southerners will hate him, and the Bangkok elite will hate him. I can see a lot of civil strife.'