ANALYSIS: Japan opposition gains as ruling party fails to deliver

By Lars Nicolaysen Jan 26, 2009, 8:33 GMT

   Tokyo - Historic change is possible in Japan in 2009, as for the first time in more than half a century a single opposition party gained enough support to unseat the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

   According to polls released on Monday, support for LDP Prime Minster Taro Aso dropped to 19 per cent, while 76 per cent reject his government.

   Public support for the LDP, which has been in power almost uninterrupted for 50 years, slipped to 29 per cent, while the country's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan led by Ichiro Ozawa, enjoys 37 per cent support.

   At first glance, Aso seems the sole source of the LDP's dilemma. Many Japanese think his policies for dealing with the global financial crisis and the ensuing economic slowdown are insufficient, diffuse and not targeted.

   Verbal missteps by Aso, who is known for often thoughtless off-the-cuff remarks, helped pile criticism on the premier, added by embarrassing reports the manga-comic fan was not able to read some Japanese characters.

   When Aso was elected LDP chairman in September, many hoped he would quickly call snap elections in a bid to take advantage of his initially high approval ratings to prevent the party's defeat.

   However, since he rejected that strategy in view of the economic downturn, Aso faces growing internal opposition, culminating in the defection of a prominent member of parliament.

   Analysts expect Aso to hang on until September, the latest possible date for elections to Japan's lower house, but it remains doubtful that the LPD's situation will improve by then. Speculation over a power shift towards the DJP abounds.

   Yet, the historic loss would not be Aso's fault alone.

   The LDP seemed worn out for years. For decades, the ruling party, which does not follow a Western-style party platform, based its power on providing lush patronage for its clientele in the farming and construction sectors, while the bureaucracy planned and implemented the day-to-day and economic policies.

   Travelling through Japan, a visitor immediately notices overregulated rivers, unnecessary bridges and tunnels as well as roads to nowhere.

   The system that long inspired confidence in the LDP elites turned increasingly impossible to finance. Japan's state debt doubled over the past years.

   Adding to the decline of the LDP power professionals is a string of scandals and a new electoral system which facilitates power change.

   The DJP developed into a serious alternative for Japan's voters, by former premier Junichiro Koizumi managed to maintain the LDP grip on power by promising reforms.

   For a brief time, voters hoped he would turn into Japan's Gorbachev and topple the corrupt old LDP system. But only too soon Koizumi's successors, Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and now Taro Aso - Japan's third prime minister in four years - fell back into old LDP patterns, critics said.

   'The LDP's traditional voter groups have been worn out in the past 10, 15 years,' said political scientist Axel Klein of the German institute of Japanese studies in Tokyo.

   Voters turned away from the LDP, not believing the party could solve the pressing problems facing Japan: debt has reached 180 per cent of the gross domestic product; the gap between poor and rich widens.

   'At the same time Japan ages faster than any other industrialized country. The pension system is drawing its last breath and the state health insurance does not look very good either,' Klein said.

   The DJP under its chairman Ozawa, an old LDP bruiser who quit the party in 1993 after an internal power struggle over reforms, profits from the situation.

   The DJP, which offers economic reforms and presents itself as the party of the people, has been in control of the Upper House since 2007. The chance for taking control of the Lower House as well have never been that good.

   But no one knows whether the DJP would be able to break up the fossilized structures.

   And, the LDP is still in power. Serval times in the past its downfall was predicted, but the party again and again managed to keep change at bay.