ANALYSIS: China seeks to avoid North Korean collapse

By Bill Smith Nov 23, 2010, 12:56 GMT

Beijing - North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island Tuesday was likely to draw new calls by Western politicians for China to use its economic and diplomatic clout to persuade Pyongyang to curtail its aggressive military posture.

China unequivocally opposes North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, but many analysts said they believe the ruling Communist Party's key principle in handling its neighbour is to avoid the collapse of the regime in Pyongyang.

China reacted with predictable caution to reports of Tuesday's shelling, in which at least two South Korean soldiers died.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei expressed China's 'concern' and urged the resumption 'as soon as possible' of six-nation talks involving North Korea, the United States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia that are aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear weapons programme.

After signing a six-party statement of intent to denuclearize in 2005, North Korea has dragged its feet on implementing the agreement, and the talks have made no progress for more than three years.

News last week that North Korea had allowed a visiting US nuclear scientist to see a large, new uranium-enrichment facility has raised more questions about Pyongyang's nuclear intentions.

Together with Tuesday's shelling, it has also revived some difficult questions for China and again highlighted Beijing's limited ability to control its ally from the 1950-53 Korean War.

'North Korea relies on China in its economy, but in security aspects, it frequently acts against China's will and takes actions like its nuclear tests and the artillery firing,' said Shi Yinhong, an international relations specialist at People's University in Beijing.

'This is China's difficulty and a very remarkable phenomenon in China-North Korea relations,' Shi said.

Some Western analysts argued that it would be relatively simple for China to use economic, political and even military pressure to persuade North Korea to end its nuclear weapons programme.

But Beijing gave a cool response to international calls for the UN Security Council to impose new sanctions over North Korea's apparent torpedoing of the South Korean warship Cheonan in March, which killed 46 sailors.

It is highly unlikely to adopt a tougher stance after Tuesday's shelling, which the United States condemned as a 'belligerent action.'

China, which shares a 1,400-kilometre border with North Korea, has plenty of reasons for wanting Kim Jong Il's regime to remain in power.

It is concerned about a potential flood of refugees if North Korea suffers more famine or instability.

A greater worry for China's rulers is the potential effect of the fall of the ruling Korean Workers Party on the strategic balance in East Asia - and even its effect on the Chinese Communist Party's own future.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group concluded in a report last November that China 'continues to act in ways that shield' North Korea from 'more punitive measures, including stronger economic sanctions.'

'Beijing's overriding policy priority on the Korean Peninsula is to prevent political change or economic collapse in North Korea, given the potential consequences for China's social and economic stability,' the report said.

Andrei Lavrov, a Russian expert on North Korea, said China wants to maintain a divided Korea 'because North Korea is a buffer zone which helps them to keep US forces in the South.'

'China probably understands that in the long run, the current [North Korean] regime is not going to continue forever,' Lavrov told US broadcaster Radio Free Asia last month.

'So right now, the Chinese line is to do everything possible to postpone this collapse by providing North Korea with moderate aid and some investments, some trade, but largely aid,' Lavrov said.

China is also a transshipment or purchasing point for smuggled hardware used in North Korea's uranium-enrichment programme, according to a report last month by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security think tank.

'China is not applying enough resources to detect and stop North Korea's illicit nuclear trade,' the report said.

China has previously denied such charges, but since 2005, it has partially cooperated with the United States, for example, in freezing North Korean bank accounts in Macau that were linked to money laundering, counterfeiting and drug trafficking.

Shi said Tuesday that China remained unwilling to take any drastic measures because it 'cannot accept the collapse of North Korea.'

'It will bring too many serious problems,' he said. 'If North Korea collapses, the most affected country is China.'

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