ANALYSIS: Defence talks unlikely to bridge long-term differences

By Bill Smith Jan 10, 2011, 11:30 GMT

Beijing - China 'cannot escape the calamity of war' in the next two decades because it is surrounded by 'hostile' forces, People's Liberation Army Colonel Dai Xu wrote last year in his book, C-shaped Enclosure.

Dai's book did not express China's official military position but it expounded the popular view that the country's southern and eastern sea borders are shadowed by military forces from the United States and its allies in Asia.

In a speech in Tokyo in November 2008, US President Barack Obama said US alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand and the Philippines would 'continue to provide the bedrock of security and stability' in Asia.

US officials are concerned by the speed and secrecy of China's military modernisation.

'China is developing and fielding large numbers of advanced medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles, new attack submarines equipped with advanced weapons, increasingly capable long-range air defence systems, electronic warfare and computer network attack capabilities, advanced fighter aircraft and counter-space systems,' the US Defence Department quoted Marine Corps Colonel Dave Lapan as saying last week.

'China is no less worried about the US military presence in Asia,' the Global Times newspaper said in a commentary on Gates's visit on Monday.

The Chinese and US defence chiefs both made conciliatory statements and emphasized the need for long-term military cooperation and dialogue Monday.

Yet any hopes of a major rapprochement were dented by Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie's robust response to a reporter's question about US arms sales to Taiwan.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Gates, Liang said the arms sales had 'jeopardized China's core interests' over the island that the ruling Communist Party has vowed to 'reunify' with mainland China, by force as a last resort.

When Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, committing it to continue selling defensive weapons to Taipei.

Beijing argues that the arms sales violate the three joint communiques between China and the United States, particularly one in 1982 in which the US pledged to 'gradually reduce' the arms sales.

Before Monday's talks, Gates defended the US policy on arms sales to Taiwan, saying it had 'been pretty selective over the years in ensuring that those sales were defensive in nature.'

Gates will see some of China's most sophisticated weaponry when he visits the headquarters of the Second Artillery nuclear missile forces near Beijing on Wednesday.

The visit apparently reflects China's new openness over its once-secretive nuclear weapons. State television last year broadcast footage from the Second Artillery's 'underground missile silo control centre' and the huge tunnels linking the silos.

'Over the years, the Chinese military doctrine was 'hide and bide' - hide your resources and bide your time,' US Vice Admiral David Dorsett, director of naval intelligence, said last week.

'They now appear to have shifted into an era where they're willing to show their resources and capabilities,' Dorsett said.

A decade ago the US military held a computer-simulated 'space war' exercise involving a complex stand-off with military satellites, missiles, space planes, lasers and cyber warfare.

The exercise was set in 2017 and required US forces to defend country Brown (Taiwan) from the threat of attack by a more powerful east Asian neighbour, Red (China), which was described as a 'near-peer competitor' of the United States, according to a Washington Post report.

China's testing of an anti-satellite missile in 2007 highlighted the reality of the premises behind the 2001 exercise.

Yet Chinese leaders consistently chart a 'peaceful rise' for the nation and insist its military build-up is merely defensive.

The onus should be on Washington to reassure China of its intentions, the Global Times said.

'The top priority of developing Sino-US military relations is to build mutual trust,' the commentary said.

'The US, with stronger military power, should release more sincerity,' it said.

'It has to do more to reduce the natural assumption of a 'US conspiracy' in Chinese society.'

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