Ai Weiwei release indicates rift in China leadership, analyst says

Jun 23, 2011, 4:15 GMT

Hong Kong - The release of artist Ai Weiwei is evidence of divisions among China's leaders on how to handle dissidents, a political analyst said Thursday.

Ai, 53, whose arrest in April caused an international oucry, was released on bail Wednesday. Police said he had confessed to tax evasion and was released partly because he had a chronic disease.

Professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China analyst at Hong Kong's Baptist University, said diverging views within the country's ruling elite and international pressure combined to secure his release.

Speaking on Hong Kong government-run radio station RTHK Thursday, Cabestan said: 'Clearly it indicates there have been different views within the Chinese leadership on how to handle the Ai Weiwei case.

'We are seeing diverging views on ways to manage society and manage political unrest, and (people are) looking towards the future of political reform in China.'

An upcoming trip by premier Wen Jiabao to Europe may have affected the timing of Ai Weiwei's release on bail Wednesday, Cabestan said.

But he argued: 'The reasons (for his release) are more profound than a political trip to Europe.

'There have been different views within Chinese society and China's leadership about how to manage critics. Maybe it is better for the regime to let them speak out than detain them.'

Cabestan described the release of Ai as 'a step in the right direction' but said people should not be optimistic that it will lead to the release of Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiabao.

Dissident Liu was jailed for 11 years in December 2009 and his case was 'much more complicated and political' than that of Ai, Cabestan said.

Ai is barred from speaking to the media or leaving China while on bail.

Cabestan predicted: 'The future of Ai Weiwei will depend on the political atmosphere in the country as we move towards the 18th Party Congress (due to take place in 2012).'