ANALYSIS: Putin's China talks to focus on energy, Syria

By Bill Smith Oct 11, 2011, 3:44 GMT

Beijing - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's talks with Chinese leaders on Tuesday and Wednesday were expected to focus on Syria and the extensive energy cooperation between China and Russia, analysts said.

'I think the most important thing for the two leaders to discuss this time is the Syria issue,' Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at People's University in Beijing, told dpa.

China and Russia last week vetoed a draft United Nations Security Council resolution that would have called on Syria to respect the human rights of anti-government protesters.

China said the draft resolution 'put pressure blindly on Syria and threatened sanctions.' It urged the international community to put more effort into encouraging dialogue between the government and the opposition.

'Because China and Russia rejected the proposal, which was raised by the US and Europe ... China and Russia will both face pressure from the US and Europe about the Syrian situation in the coming few weeks,' Shi said.

'I think this is an urgent issue that needs to be discussed by the two leaders,' he said, referring to Putin's talks with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday.

Shi said he also expected them to discuss international issues such as North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's recent visit to Russia.

According to a report this month by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China's need for Russian gas and oil, military hardware and space technology has waned in recent years.

'Decreasing dependence on Russian arms exports and a growing number of alternative energy suppliers mean that China has taken the upper hand in the relationship,' it said.

But Zha Daojiong, a specialist in energy and international relations at Beijing University, said it was too early to say that Sino-Russian political relations had altered.

'Military trade might be reduced as China is developing its own technology,' Zha told dpa. 'But it doesn't mean something changed in the political relations between the two nations.'

Shi said China had been forced to buy Russian arms because 'the US impedes Europe, Israel and other countries from selling military equipment to China.'

He agreed that rapid development of Chinese military technology had reduced its dependence on Russia, but he said the nature of the two nations' energy trade had not changed.

Shi said he disputed the claim on energy 'because the numbers for energy trade between China and Russia are huge and the process is quite slow.'

'China is still willing to import substantial energy from Russia, that is certain,' he said.

Shi and Zha both said they saw Russia as a tough negotiator on the prices of its oil and gas exports, with no major agreement on energy expected during Putin's visit.

The two sides disagree over Russian gas giant Gazprom's demand for China to pay a price close to European levels.

'It's all about price, and price cannot be discussed by diplomats,' Zha said. 'Price relates very much to the domestic market of the two nations.'

'Energy is a comprehensive topic involving gas, oil, the way of consuming, extracting, and so on,' he said. 'It is not easy to conclude that there is a good result or a bad one [from the negotiations] from only looking at how many contracts we have signed.'

China is Russia's largest trade partner and Vice Premier Wang Qishan on Monday said bilateral trade was expected to exceed 70 billion dollars this year.

They have also set goals to increase two-way trade to 100 billion dollars by 2015 and 200 billion dollars by 2020.

China wants to expand cooperation with Russia in energy, high technology, infrastructure, finance and tourism, state media quoted Wang as saying during talks in Beijing with his Russian counterpart Alexander Zhukov.

Wang said the two sides also planned to discuss building a special economic zone in Russia, increasing trade settlement in local currencies, and expanding space cooperation.

Yet, as usual in talks between China and Russia, some of the key discussions and agreements on military, space and even energy cooperation are not expected to be made public.

'I don't think any important items will emerge that can be announced to the public, but there might be some agreements,' Shi said.

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