Thailand's stability hinges on Thaksin Shinawatra, opposition warns

Dec 23, 2011, 10:50 GMT

Bangkok - Thailand's political stability over the next four years will hinge on the government's stance towards fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva warned Friday.

'If the government wants a peaceful four years in office, they can have it, but if they want to provoke controversies, it's there,' said Abhisit, Thailand's prime minister from 2009 until July 2011, when his Democrat Party lost an election to the Pheu Thai party.

Thaksin, who has been living in self-exile since 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term on an abuse of power conviction, is the de facto leader of the Pheu Thia party. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra is the current prime minister.

Thaksin, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon turned populist politician, was prime minister from 2001 until September 2006, when he was ousted in a coup.

Thailand has seen unprecedented political instability since his departure, including mass protests that resulted in the closure of Bangkok's two airports in 2008, and violent protests in 2009 and 2010 that led to street fighting in Bangkok and left scores dead.

The street protests were led by groups that were either pro- or anti-Thaksin, whose populist policies won him a huge following among Thailand's urban and rural poor but eventually antagonized the country's political elite.

'I think it's clear that the country continues to be divided, and the most divisive person continues to be Thaksin,' Abhisit said.

He warned the government of Prime Minister Yingluck to avoid controversial policies, such as pushing for an amnesty for Thaksin or amendments to the constitution to help overturn past court cases against him, as this could worsen the divide and lead to conflict.

Thaksin, who has been living in Dubai, said in a recent interview with the Bangkok Post that 'merchants of conflict' were waiting to undermine reconciliation efforts.

He said constitutional amendments were necessary to prevent democratically elected politicians from being toppled by 'small independent organizations,' an apparent reference to the Election Comission and some special courts.

'Those who are not brutal and not self-centred should get into reconciliation mode now,' he said.