ANALYSIS: Malaysia's political future hinges on outcome of sex trial

By Julia Yeow Jan 4, 2012, 2:06 GMT

Kuala Lumpur - When Malaysia's High Court delivers a verdict in the sex trial of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim Monday, the ruling would mark an end to one of the nation's most controversial cases as well as the beginning of a new political era.

Anwar, 64, faces 20 years in prison if found guilty of sodomizing a 24-year-old former male aide in 2008, a charge he has vehemently denied and claimed was concocted by political foes.

Throughout the trial, which began in February 2010, his lawyers decried what they claimed to be repeated efforts to hamper the defence, such as denying access to testimonies and evidence.

Although the opposition alliance has its fair share of infighting and problems, Prime Minister Najib Razak is well aware of the threat that Anwar represents. Many educated, urban voters are increasingly impatient with his government over corruption and soaring inflation.

In the most recent elections in 2008, Anwar's alliance wrested control of five of the nation's 13 states from the government and denied it a two-thirds majority in Parliament.

The upset forced then-premier Abdullah Badawi to step down in favour of Najib, and Anwar declared his intention to take over the government, a threat Najib has taken seriously.

The premier has publicly warned his alliance to improve its performance or risk losing power in the next elections, which could be called as early as the first half of this year.

If Anwar is found not guilty, he is likely to pose a real threat to Najib, whose popularity is flagging despite populist policies and attempts to endear himself to younger voters.

But if Anwar is convicted and sentenced to even one year in jail, he would be barred from politics for up to five years, weakening the opposition bloc that has yet to name a successor.

Rights groups and opposition activists said the government seems intent on removing Anwar as a political foe by using a colonial-era law against sodomy, which outlaws it even when it is consensual.

Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch, charged the proceedings have been conducted unfairly since the outset. He said the government did not appear 'sincere' in its earlier pledge to offer Anwar and his accuser equal rights and treatment.

'Obviously, we cannot really speculate on what the verdict will be, but we do have very serious concerns that he is even being tried on this charge, which should not be considered a crime in the first place,' Robertson said.

In 1998, Anwar was accused of sodomizing his driver and then using his power as then-deputy premier to cover it up, a charge he also claimed was trumped up to prevent him from challenging former premier Mahathir Mohamad.

He was convicted and jailed for six years before being released in 2004 when a Federal Court panel overturned his conviction, saying the main witness against him was unreliable and Anwar should have been acquitted.

Then, as now, the government denied any conspiracy.

'The fact that he has been tried for this 'crime' twice now when thankfully there are very few prosecutions under this antiquated British colonial law also raises the fundamental question of why the government is singling Anwar out,' Robertson said.

But just as he defied the odds to rise from political ruin to become opposition leader, Anwar's supporters said it would take more than a conviction next week to remove him or his followers from Malaysian politics.