ANALYSIS: Myanmar-Karen ceasefire a good first step, but far to go

By Peter Janssen Jan 12, 2012, 11:50 GMT

Bangkok - Ceasefire agreements signed Thursday between authorities and the 63-year-old Karen insurgency are more good news for Myanmar's new government, which appears to be going out of its way these days to turn over a new leaf.

The two ceasefire agreements between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the local Karen State government and the national government's peace committee, are the first to be signed by the insurgency since it took up arms in January, 1949.

The KNU came to the table armed with many demands.

In their four-point proposal to the Karen State officials, they sued for a ceasefire and the right for KNU followers to travel freely in the Karen State, where the Myanmar military has 101 battalions.

Myanmar Immigration Minister Kyin Yi, who attended the talks in Pa-an, Karen State, said he would immediately look into procedures for providing their former foes with proper national identity cards and travel documents.

In its 11-point proposal for a ceasefire with the national peace committee, headed by Railways Minister Aung Min, the KNU asked that the government not only stop attacking the Karen but also all other ethnic minority insurgencies in Myanmar. There are a dozen.

KNU Secretary General Zipporah Sein expressed surprise that Aung Min had agreed to such a condition, although the agreement was admittedly just 'in principle.'

Aung Min will still need to get the central government and the military establishment to approve his country-wide ceasefire.

There's the rub.

Aung Min is known to be a close friend of Thein Sein, Myanmar's new president who came to office on March 30.

Thein Sein, a former general himself, has surprised the international community and Myanmar watchers by pursuing a remarkably reformist track since assuming his post.

In August, he initiated a political dialogue with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whom the previous junta kept under house arrest for 15 out of 21 years, and paved the way for the Nobel peace laureate's re-entry into mainstream politics via a by-election scheduled on April 1.

Between May and January, he has released 347 political prisoners (although leaving an estimated 600 to 1,500 behind bars).

The Thein Sein government has also made progress on the ethnic minority battle front. Besides the ceasefires just signed in Pa-an, the government has negotiated similar pacts with the Shan State Army-South, based in Shan State of north-east Myanmar, and the China National Army, based in Chin State in north-west Myanmar.

Last month, Thein Sein also ordered troops in Kachin State to stop shooting people. But according to field reports, the army has ignored his orders.

The Myanmar army has been carrying out a full scale offensive against the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) since June last year.

The fighting has displaced about 60,000 people, according to Refugeees International, and claimed thousands of Myanmar troops.

'I think the army decided to ignore Thein Sein's order because they have suffered extreme casualties,' said Bertil Lintner, author of several books on Myanmar's insurgencies, including The Land of Jade, Burma in Revolt, The Kachin: Lords of Burma's Northern Frontier.

If the army is ignoring Thein Sein's orders in the Kachin State, one wonders how seriously it is likely to take the ceasefire agreements in the Shan, Chin and Karen states.

Both Thein Sein and Aung Min are men in a hurry.

As the moderates within what remains a military-run regime, they have been given leeway to demonstrate that reforms will bear fruit in terms of getting Western democracies to drop economic sanctions on Myanmar, which has been penalized for its poor human rights record for the past 23 years, analysts say.

To get the sanctions dropped, Thein Sein needs to at least appear to be satisfying the West's main demands: release political prisoners; hold a free and fair by-election on April 1; and sign some ceasefires with the ethnic minority groups.

By appearances, at least, they are trying to satisfy the conditions.

'One thing I can say about the current government, is that Thein Sein's regime is far better with public relations,' said Khin Ohmar, coordinator for the Forum for Democracy in Burma.