ANALYSIS: Ma's victory in Taiwan is good for relationship with China

By Lin Yang Jan 14, 2012, 14:36 GMT

Taipei - The comfortable victory margin that incumbent Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou enjoyed over opposition candidate Tsai Ing-wen late Saturday indicates that voters approve of what Ma has done so far to build closer ties with mainland China.

For much of the election, Ma asked voters to judge him based on his record in returning Taiwan to positive economic growth following the 2008 global financial crisis.

He attributed this recovery to the 16 agreements he signed with mainland China, which helped ease the environment for business between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

He argued that by accepting the 1992 consensus - a tacit agreement of the one-China policy that was China's condition for negotiations - Taiwan could piggyback on China's rise and prevent Beijing from threatening the island's security.

For this reason the chief executives of Taiwan's largest companies - including HTC Corp and Foxconn Technology Group - endorsed Ma, as most of them have significant investment interests and manufacturing operations on the mainland.

The opposition tried to discredit this support, arguing that rising unemployment and stagnant wages showed that Ma had only helped the wealthiest business leaders, who ship manufacturing jobs to China.

But conversations with young voters, who have the highest levels of unemployment in Taiwan, indicated that many still feel China is a basket of opportunity.

'China is the best market for Taiwanese goods,' said Tifi Liu, 21, a first-time voter and student at Fu Jen Catholic University.

'They are also supporting our financial system, tourism and trade. It's like that Chinese saying - if someone offers you wine, you should accept it.'

The result indicates that a majority of Taiwan's electorate approves of Ma's conciliatory approach so far, especially since it was unclear where his opponent, Tsai, stood on cross-strait relations.

Tsai, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, had wanted to halt further negotiations with China until Taiwan reached domestic consensus on the issue - setting up a prolonged period of internal uncertainty.

But she could not decisively say how she would steer Taiwan's economy if China retaliated economically, except by saying that she would help Taiwan's industries find 'other' markets.

Tsai's position also disappointed the DPP base, which staunchly advocates Taiwanese independence - a position that most voters now find unpalatable given China's rising power and a lack of international support.

Still, it remains unclear whether Taiwanese voters would condone political negotiations with the mainland. Polls show that more and more people on the island consider themselves distinctly Taiwanese, rather than Chinese - making reunification unpalatable.

In addition, when Ma proposed a peace agreement with Beijing in October to end the state of war between the two sides, he received a dip in polls.

Nevertheless, China was likely to be quietly cheering Ma's victory and the prospect of more agreements that could bring Taiwan closer into its fold.

'Mainland China will still insist on the '1992 consensus',' said Chen Xiancai, a professor of politics at Xiamen University. 'This is the bottom line. If Ma's policy accords with the peaceful cross-strait relations and China's interests, the government will surely welcome Ma.'