Japan's population to shrink 32 per cent by 2060

Jan 30, 2012, 7:46 GMT

Tokyo - Japan's population could dwindle 32 per cent to 86.7 million by 2060 if the birthrate does not increase, the government's research organization said Monday.

Japan is one of the world's most rapidly aging countries and has one of the lowest birthrates, a result of socioeconomic changes brought on by a rapid period of economic growth after World War II.

Since 1970, the number of Japanese over 65 has tripled to 23 per cent of the population of 128 million in 2010. The percentage could increase to 30.9 per cent by 2030 and 39.9 per cent by 2060, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimated.

Projections for over-65 populations in India, China, and the US in 2030 are 8.4 per cent, 15.9 per cent, and 19.8 per cent, respectively, of the total national population.

The total fertility rate - the expected number of children each woman has in her lifetime - steadily declined from 2.16 in 1971 to 1.26 in 2005.

The figure has improved of late - up to 1.39 in 2010 - but it's still among the lowest in the world. But the figure is expected to decline to 1.33 in 2024 and 1.35 in 2060, the institute said.

Japan needs at least a 2.07 average to keep the population at the current level, the institute said.

The average number of children born by women in the US is 2.1 and 1.8 in China.

The institute expected the upward trend for the average life expectancy to continue in Japan, projecting an increase from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men during the same period.