By Shabtai Gold Oct 23, 2009, 12:30 GMT
Geneva - 'Disenchantment' and 'frustration' were the words used this week to describe trade negotiations at the World Trade Organization, one month before a large-scale ministerial meeting.
Not only are the negotiations not moving ahead, but Brazil, a key player in the talks, also believes the progress made over the past eight years is starting to unwind. And she does not stand alone in that concern, other diplomats say.
The WTO launched the ongoing Doha round of talks in 2001 at the Qatari capital, with the objective of further liberalizing trade to help developing countries gain access to market and products needed to lift them out of poverty.
However, the talks appear stalled, diplomats are saying in Geneva, home of the WTO, or worse. Brazil worries the process is 'unraveling,' as disputes lead to reopening issues once thought closed.
'Countries are grumpy,' said one official, noting that many capitals felt the talks were not leading anywhere of substance.
'This was the least promising meeting since I arrived in Geneva,' said the ambassador of a G20 country at a negotiation session this week.
'It was an extremely unsatisfactory process this week,' said a diplomat from an exporting industrialized nation.
Talks on agriculture products have made little progress on the most thorny and most significant issues, while the talks on trade in services have not produced real results.
The disputes between rich and poor countries linger over issues like market access and subsidies, even in the industries sector, an area where there is more common ground.
This has been made somewhat more complicated by the global economic crisis, which has pushed wealthy economies to introduce stimulus packages.
The developing world in particular is up in arms over the measures, saying they are trade distorting, as the poor cannot afford the massive booster packages to their economies.
Trade in 2009 is estimated to fall by 9 to 10 per cent, year on year, the worst year for international commerce since the end of World War II.
Meanwhile, trade spats between major trading centres have ensued, including what appears to be some tit-for-tat retaliation between the United States and other countries, including China.
Pascal Lamy, the WTO chief, has pushed the 153 members of his commerce organization to produce specific texts which can then be used as the basis for negotiations.
But, as some countries engage in direct bilateral talks and negotiations in small groups which do not lead to printed positions, others feel left out. The ones out in the cold are now saying the process is not transparent, a long standing criticism of trade talks.
While countries pledged earlier this autumn to push ahead with trade talks, the words and actions do not seem to be in tandem, diplomats have complained.
At the end of November and the beginning of December, trade ministers will gather in Geneva for a scheduled three days. This will be the first ministerial since 2005, though the organization's rules call for a meeting every two years.
The sentiment in Geneva, say observers, is that the target of closing Doha by the end of next year is starting to look more and more remote.
'Things do not look good, and time is running out,' according to one particularly downbeat trade diplomat.
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