A tale of two emirates coping with economic uncertainty (Feature)

By Anne-Beatrice Clasmann Apr 17, 2010, 3:06 GMT

Dubai/Abu Dhabi - A few dozen construction cranes still dot the skyline of Dubai, and in the air cargo industry the emirate is still racking up double-digit growth rates.

But the real economic music in the region is being played in the neighbouring emirate of Abu Dhabi.

Many international companies have long ago set up business in Abu Dhabi, which has the most oil reserves of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). They have built a Formula One race course, towering apartment buildings, sun roofs and television studios.

They have turned desert areas green and are currently in the process of setting up a Guggenheim Museum and a branch of the Louvre.

But in the meantime smaller foreign companies are also getting interested in Abu Dhabi. Politicians who hope that the Abu Dhabi State Fund - the largest state-owned investment fund in the world - will help out companies back home which have fallen into financial straits, and so are also seeking business appointments in the desert metropolis in the Gulf.

'Previously, we sometimes had to argue with medium-sized German firms to convince them not only to come to Dubai but also to visit Abu Dhabi,' says Dalia Abu Samra-Rothe, head of the office of the German-Emirates Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Abu Dhabi. 'Today, it's just the opposite.'

But she believes that at least in the area of of infrastructure there continue to be good business opportunities in Dubai. 'Even now, when some things have collapsed, there is still a whole lot going on here compared to Germany.'

However, investors and supplier companies have still not yet recovered from last November's shock. That was when the state company Dubai World and its real estate subsidiary Nakheel, which is best known for its Palm Islands project, had piled up debts approaching 60 billion dollars.

Creditors were stunned when Dubai World asked for debt moratorium, for they had always assumed that Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, and the wealthy neighbouring emirate Abu Dhabi, would in an emergency step in to guarantee the credits.

Just to what extent this could apply to Abu Dhabi's state companies is something which financial analysts are now trying to ascertain. In any even, there's a lot of nervousness.

A current analysis by the Swiss bank Credit Suisse concludes: 'The loss of confidence continues to be significant for Dubai and the region as a whole ... Nevertheless, investors should not underestimate long-term prospects in the Middle East. With 56 per cent of the world's oil reserves, the Gulf States are excellently positioned to accelerate their modernization process.'

In Abu Dhabi, at any rate, rents are still extremely high. This has induced many firms to keep their offices in Dubai even though they are now primarily involved in seeking projects in Abu Dhabi.

And many foreign skilled employees in the meantime have become commuters. Taking a look at morning traffic patterns, it becomes apparent that those who have a halfway well-paying job live in the emirate of Sharjah and drive to work.

Those who work in Abu Dhabi and do not get the some 4,000 dollars needed to pay the rent, prefer the hour's drive from Dubai to Abu Dhabi.

Optimists in the region meanwhile are trying to put a positive spin on the crisis, seeing it as an opportunity for Dubai.

They hope that the financial crisis in the emirate, whose population is comprised to 90 per cent by foreign workers and experts, will force greater transparency. In some state-owned companies, bosses who had favoured their own firms in awarding major projects have been fired and replaced.

In the real estate sector, what currently applies is that projects which have been already started should be completed. But projects which so far exist only on paper will either be postponed or cancelled altogether.

'Today, nobody is speaking any longer about the planned high-rise tower with revolving floors,' one Arab journalist remarked. 'The project has been quietly buried.'

But since he lives in the emirate, he says he makes an effort not to produce too many negative headlines, for people react a bit touchy to such things.

For example, this message on a T-shirt on sale in the new luxury shopping centre Dubai Mall next to the Burj Khalifa skyscraper: 'Lots of Love, Please ... Shut up!! Leave Dubai alone.'