Business News
Volkswagen deflates electric-car enthusiasm
Jul 19, 2008, 11:18 GMT
Wolfsburg, Germany - Volkswagen's top researcher warned Saturday that pure electric cars would not became a major product for decades, because they continue to be thwarted by battery technology.
Juergen Leohold, chief research officer at Volkswagen Group, said the key problems were gaining adequate range, the huge cost and a lack of industrial capacity to make high-energy batteries.
In an interview with Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa in Wolfsburg, he deflated predictions that millions of people would be driving electric cars by the middle of the 2010s as 'very optimistic.'
Leohold said Volkswagen would sell electric models, but cautioned, 'It will take 20 to 25 years before electric cars achieve a market share of more than 10 per cent.' Volkswagen's first electric car would be a small car due out in 2010, but bigger ones might follow.
'We have an ambition to electrify more than just the really small cars, but also our main model series, the Golf,' he said.
Leohold said research into lithium-ion batteries had made big jumps, but the items were still far too expensive.
He said electric motors would never replace internal-combustion engines in some sectors, such as long-distance heavy trucks.
'At the moment it is inconceivable they could ever be powered by batteries,' he said, adding that there was still major potential to make petrol and diesel engines more efficient.
Separately, the German weekly magazine Focus reported Saturday that a key aim behind a takeover bid from German ball-bearings company Schaeffler for tyremaker Continental was a plan to jointly develop electric and other energy-saving engines.
Both companies make mechanical sub-systems for cars.
Focus said Schaeffler chief executive Juergen Geissinger wanted to combine his company's valve controls with Continental's fuel- injection and exhaust-recycling technology to make combustion engines more efficient.
They could also jointly develop gearless electric traction motors for cars, the magazine said.
In a report to appear Sunday in the newspaper Welt am Sonntag, Continental chief executive Manfred Wennemer opposed the takeover but said he welcomed Schaeffler owning up to 20 per cent of his firm.
'We should get together and come up with a sensible solution,' he said.

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kent beuchertJul 19th, 2008 - 15:43:25
Leohold is being realistic in terms of battery-only electrics - they are (sans EESTor devices working) too expensive, too short-ranged, and don't last long enough. But that DOESN'T mean that we won't be driving electric - Leohold is obviously unaware that we don't need any greater range or lifespan than we already have in order to build plug-in hybrids like the Chevy Volt. And THAT car will travel alnmost entirely on electricity, regardless of whether it's commuting , when it will require less than 6% of the current gasoline requiremnst, even if no workplace recharging occurs. Allow for 1/3rd to recharge and it will avoid 98% of
current gasoline requirements. When not commuting (roughly the other 50%
of driving) it will eliminate a minimum of 91% of gasoline usage. The
advantages of a BEV lie largely in the mind of the beholder - they are not real. And many trips that a plug-in hybrid can take , and use electricity for a good portion of the trip, the BEV owner must use a gas powered vehicle, that will not only use no electicity, but will use gas a a much higher rate than the 50MPG of the plug-in hybrid. And remember that 33% of petroleum is used for commercial trucks and boats, etc. and those will still be around for a very long time and we will need petroleum fule for them, irregardless of whether BEVs or PHEVs are used.
Fortunately, consumers will have a choice. There are certain cases where the owner only needs a secondcar for commuting and neighborhood trips and may choose a BEV. But anyone who has only one car, especially those without a place to plug in at home, the plug-in hybrid is the obvious choice - the BEV is simply NOT a viable alternative to a car that can go anywhere at any time. The driving radius of those that people could conceivably afford are less than 45 miles. This will decrease with battery age.
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