ANALYSIS: Apple without Jobs: What was unthinkable becomes plausible

By Andy Goldberg Jun 23, 2009, 3:04 GMT

San Francisco - Apple shares fell almost 2 per cent Monday after a weekend report in The Wall Street Journal revealed that Steve Jobs, the company's iconic founder, visionary and chief executive, had undergone a liver transplant some two months ago in Tennessee.

The selloff occurred amid a wider decline on Wall Street and despite Apple reporting strong sales figures for its new iPhone 3GS, which sold 1 million units on its debut weekend in the US to double the forecast estimates.

In the past, Apple's stock has seesawed wildly with every rumour about the health of Jobs, 54, who is regarded by many as one of the greatest executives in the history of the technology industry.

But the relatively muted reaction to news that he underwent a procedure as serious as a liver transplant reflects another facet of his uncanny success: the ability to negotiate a transition from his own leadership.

As investors were digesting the implications of the latest Jobs prognosis, analysts and journalists were busy scribbling what was once unthinkable: that Apple would do just fine without Steve Jobs at the helm.

Three main reasons were given to support this argument. The quality of Apple's products and brand, the competence behind Jobs' apparent successors and his ability to keep functioning as an Apple visionary if not as its day-to-day manager.

'There's no question he's heading for the exit door - it's just a question of when and in what capacity,' said tech analyst Carmi Levy, who praised the Jobs transition process. 'Like everything else Steve Jobs does, it's a brilliantly managed campaign.'

There has been widespread praise for Apple's chief operating officer Tim Cook, who in the six months of Jobs' absence has successfully introduced a new generation of the company's iPod, a new line of MacBooks and last weekend's successful debut of the new iPhone. There is also the surging success of Apple's App Store, with more than 1 billion downloads and the release later this summer of Snow Leopard, Apple's next-generation operating system, which will go head-to-head with Microsoft's new operating system, Windows 7.

Analyst Tim Bajarin says that Jobs has been gradually relinquishing daily control of the company for two years - with project executives taking responsibility and 'only going to Jobs on big issues and questions and making sure their programmes where in line with Jobs' overall vision.'

While Jobs may still decide to return to full-time work, limit his input to strategic decisions and major announcements, or retire, Levy has little doubt that the company can continue to thrive.

'There will be a future for Apple long after Steve Jobs leaves the company,' he says. 'Apple has the Steve Jobs DNA. He has built the company in his image, and the culture will outlive the man.'

Apple's hometown newspaper, the San Jose Mercury News, tried to calm jittery investors and Apple fans, reminding them that from the start of the saga about the health of Steve Jobs, 'Apple has retained its mystique, its powerful hold on consumers and its remarkable influence on the tech industry.'