PREVIEW: G20 to weigh exiting stimulus plans and bank bonus rules

By Andrew McCathie Sep 4, 2009, 11:30 GMT

London - Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers are launching a two-day meeting in London Friday, to consider tough rules on bankers' bonuses as part of an overhaul of the global financial system.

But while the G20's top finance officials are expected to agree on clamping down on bonuses, the key question facing the meeting is how and when to roll back the fiscal stimulus plans launched around the world to combat the recession.

However, despite signs that the global economic crisis is abating, ministers speaking ahead of the meeting in Britain's Treasury building were adamant that stabilizing fiscal measures would remain in place until an economic recovery has gained a foothold.

'The biggest risk is to think that the job's done - that recovery is guaranteed,' said the host of the meeting British Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling. 'No country can be complacent - we've got to see this through.'

His comments reflected concerns that the world economy could slump into a double-dip recession if government stimulus plans are scaled back too hastily.

The gathering of finance officials from the world's leading industrial nations and emerging economies in London will also lay the groundwork for the summit of G20 government chiefs later this month in the US city of Pittsburgh, to be hosted by President Barack Obama.

The Pittsburgh summit will be the third time that the G20 leaders have met since November to consider how to reshape the world financial order.

In addition to Germany, France, Britain and the US, the G20 also includes Australia and Japan as well as the world's emerging powerhouse economies of China, India and Brazil.

After arriving in London Friday, the G20 finance officials are to attend a working dinner before formally meeting on Saturday.

But the signs that some key economies are now shaking off what has been the world's steepest recession in around six decades seems to have reduced the sense of urgency about the push for the far-reaching overhaul of global financial markets.

The result is that analysts are not expecting the London G20 finance ministers to produce too many concrete results.

'Any talk about coordinated exit strategies from emergency fiscal and monetary policies still seems premature,' said Julian Jessop economist with the economics research group Capital Economics.

'Otherwise, there is no consensus on big issues such as the extent and timing of the regulatory changes needed to reform the financial system, the future role of the dollar or the case for a new global reserve currency,' he said.

'Difficult decisions here will be put off until the financial system is back on its feet again, and perhaps much longer,' he said.

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also expected to outline Washington's plans for bolstering global bank capital standards in bid to limit the risks undertaken by big financial institutions.

At the same time, European leaders have stepped up their campaign for the G20 to take action to break up what has been described as the banking industry's bonus culture with some banks having begun rewarding their staff with generous payments following the recent pick up in financial markets.

A joint letter released Thursday from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed binding rules for bankers' bonuses and sanctions for banks that did not play along with new controls on executive pay.

This was followed by a joint op-ed article from European Union finance ministers and published in Stockholm daily Dagens Nyheter calling for 'a strict policy on bonuses.'

While it is safe to assume that the G20 finance ministers' communique to be formally released on Saturday will roundly criticize bank bonuses, it is unclear how far the G20 will be prepared to go in imposing a global pay system for executive pay.

Britain is thought to be concerned about the impact on its financial centre in the City of London of a too rigorous crackdown on bankers' bonuses.

At the London meeting, ministers and bankers are also expected to consider ways to the G20 commitment to boost financial support for the International Monetary Fund.

The total sum for the IMF so far falls short of the 500 billion euros (750 billion dollars) committed at the April summit by the G20.