German investor confidence posts second monthly fall (Roundup)

By Andrew McCathie Nov 10, 2009, 10:20 GMT

Berlin - German investor confidence fell for the second month in a row in November, a key indicator released Tuesday showed.

The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research's (ZEW) index measuring the mood among analysts and institutional investors slipped more-than-forecast to 51.1 points this month.

'Earlier enthusiasm is now gradually giving way to realism,' said ING Bank economist Carsten Brzeski.

But he went on to say: 'The outlook looks still good, even though the German economy is about to enter calmer waters.'

The fall in the index came despite the release of fresh data showing Europe's biggest economy on a recovery path and business confidence hitting its highest level in more than a year.

But releasing the report, ZEW chief Wolfgang Franz said: 'The upward trend of the economic expectations is interrupted for the time being.

'The surveyed financial market experts signal that they do not count on a strong boost for economic growth in the next year. It rather seems that economic recovery will proceed in small steps,' he said.

Nevertheless, overhanging the German economic outlook are concerns about the impact on growth of government moves to wind back its 85- billion-euro (128-billion-dollar) stimulus plan for helping to counter the fallout from the recession.

This has in turn helped to fuel worries about escalating unemployment and the risks job fears pose for private consumption.

Analysts had expected the ZEW index, which is based on a survey of 287 analysts, would drop to 54 points in November after it declined to 56.0 points in October.

The two consecutively monthly falls came in the wake of the index climbing to a more-than three-year high of 57.7 points in September.

Moreover, the ZEW index's component measuring the current economic situation in Germany improved in November, rising by 6.6 points to minus 65.6 points.

A similar picture emerged from the ZEW survey for the 16-member eurozone.

While expectations for the eurozone economy six months down the track fell by 5.1 points to 51.8 points in November, the indicator gauging the current economic situation in the currency bloc edged up by 5.1 points to minus 70.3 points.