World economy struggles to emerge from 2008 crisis

By Andrew McCathie Aug 9, 2011, 15:06 GMT

Frankfurt - The dramatic meltdown in share markets could not have come at a worse time for the world economy.

Three years after the implosion of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered a financial crisis and the deepest recession in a generation, key indicators are once again signalling that a slowdown is underway.

But instead of emerging from the crisis, leading economies appear to have moved into a new phase of the upheaval as they attempt to cut high debt levels run up during the recession at a time of dwindling growth.

Once concerned about the financial viability of the banks at the centre of the financial crisis, investors are now worried about the creditworthiness of the governments that bailed them out.

Added to this bleak economic outlook is now the risk that the panic sell off of shares over the last week will hit both consumer and corporate confidence and further undercut the global economy.

Even the recent one bright spot on the economic landscape - last week's better-than-forecast gain in jobs in the US - was quickly brushed aside amid the deep sense of uncertainty that has engulfed both the economy and world markets.

Key purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) gauging the sentiment among business leaders in the world's top three economies - US, Europe and China - have been signalling that the economy had hit a rough patch.

But so far indicators have not shown that the world economy is staring into the abyss off a double-dip recession.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said last month its PMI for the US declined to 58.8 in July from 61.1 in June. Still, this is some way from pointing to a contraction. A reading of more than 50 signal expansion.

'Despite the weak (US) growth rates, the recession risk from today's perspective seems manageable,' said Patrick Franke, economist with the Helaba Bank in Frankfurt.

Like many economists, he believes that the US economy could gain fresh momentum in the runup to the end of the year.

While growth in the US is expected to come under 2 per cent this year, economists are forecasting an expansion rate for the world's biggest economy of plus 2 per cent next year.

German exports fell 1.2 per cent in June, the nation's statistics office said Tuesday. But many analysts still expect Europe's biggest economy to post a growth rate topping 3 per cent this year.

The growth outlook for Japan might be muted. However, a slew of new figures have also shown Japan's economy rebounding from the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March.

But what has also been behind the long stretch of share falls has been a loss of faith among investors that world leaders will be able restore market confidence and keep the world economy from tipping back into recession.

In particular, markets doubt whether the political leadership in Washington and in Europe can come to grips with their debt problems.

At the same time, data published Tuesday showing consumer prices on China hitting a three-year high of 6.5 per cent last month has raised questions as to whether officials in the world's second biggest economy are winning their battle to overcome inflation.

Industrial output growth in China slipped to 14 per cent year-to-year from 15.1 per cent in June, figures also released Tuesday showed.

This added to evidence that growth in the country has slipped back a gear as the nation's monetary authorities have attempted to tackle inflation. Chinese interest rates have been raised five times since October.

But with a growth rate of 9.6 per cent during the first half of the year, China still has the potential to help underpin global growth, analysts say.

With Western governments having little or no cash available to boost growth as they slash public spending, much of the heavy lifting involved in trying to stabilize the world economy has rested on the very reluctant shoulders of central bankers.

Leading central banks have already pumped trillions of dollars into the world economy in bid to shore up liquidity in the financial system.

Moreover, many analysts also believe that with interest rates at very low levels in the world's major economies share prices are now very attractive.

This in turn has reduced the numbers of alternative investments to equity markets, which ultimately could help to stabilize global shares.