Airbus foresees "robust future" for commercial air travel

Sep 19, 2011, 14:01 GMT

London - Continuing robust market demand for commercial air travel will require the production of more than 27,800 new passenger aircraft, at a total value of 3.5 trillion dollars, over the next 20 years, European aircraft manufacturer Airbus predicted Monday.

'People need and want to fly more than ever before. Over the next 20 years the aviation sector is expected to remain resilient to cyclical economic conditions as in the past,' Airbus said in a long-term prognosis published in London.

'In the midst of troubled financial markets, Airbus foresees strong ongoing demand for commercial aircraft,' it added.

According to its Global Market Forecast, some 27,800 new aircraft will be required by 2030 to satisfy 'future robust market demand.'

It put the combined value of the new planes - more than 26,900 passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats, and more than 900 new factory built freighters - at 3.5 trillion dollars.

As a result, the global passenger fleet would more than double by 2030, from 15,000 at present to 31,500. The trend towards larger aircraft would continue as older, less fuel-efficient aircraft were phased out.

The use of eco-efficient models in established markets was expected to improve fuel efficiency by between 15 and 20 per cent over the next 20 years, said Christian Scherer, Airbus strategy chief.

Factors driving demand for new aircraft include population growth with increasing wealth, dynamic growth in emerging economies and strong continued growth in North America and Europe, noted Airbus.

Greater urbanization and more than a doubling of so-called mega cities by 2030 would also fuel demand, according to the report.

Over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific region will account for approximately 34 percent of demand, followed by Europe, with 22 per cent, and North America, also with 22 per cent.

By share of passenger traffic, the Asia-Pacific region will be the biggest market, with 33 percent, followed by Europe with 23 per cent and North America with 20 per cent.

In terms of passenger traffic for domestic markets, India and China will see the fastest growth over the next 20 years - with 9.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively.