Once fraternal Russia and Belarus count down to cut off

By Stefan Korshak Jan 8, 2007, 14:38 GMT

Minsk - Trade relations between former Soviet republics Russia and Belarus have been deteriorating for a while, despite a theoretical free trade regime between the two states, and repeatedly calling each other 'brotherly Slavic nations.'

Key recent events in the worsening situation, compiled from regional news agencies Belapan, Interfax, and other local media include:

-- March 2005: Negotiations between the Russian natural gas exporter Gazprom and the Belarusian government begin, with a view of eventually increasing the price of gas to Belarus. Talks stall immediately on Gazprom's condition it gain control of Belarus' gas pipeline network.

-- November - December 2005: Belarus makes a government-to- government complaint about customs officials in Moscow, who are preventing the sale of hundreds of tons of Belarusian sugar, in alleged violation of a free trade agreement between the two countries. The complaint has no effect.

-- December 31, 2005: Gazprom wins the stand-off with the Belarusian government, which agrees to a hike in the price of natural gas to Belarus from 46 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres, to 100 dollars. Belarus' cash-strapped government at the same time grudgingly agrees to sell to Gazprom a controlling share in the Belarusian gas pipeline system. Talks on the deal go right down to the wire, with the agreement being signed only minutes before midnight, December 31, 2005.

-- January 1, 2007: Russia imposes a 180-dollar-per-ton tariff to oil exported from Russia to Belarus. Minsk had paid a symbolic price in the past. Belarus retaliates with a 45-dollar-per-ton surcharge on oil shipped via Belarus to Europe, primarily Poland, the Baltic states, and Germany. Moscow had paid a symbolic surcharge in the past.

-- January 2, 2007: Belarus accuses Russia's oil export monopoly of violating a free trade agreement between Belarus and Russia. Moscow publicly ignores the complaint. The Russian Foreign Ministry in an official note calls Belarusian 45-dollar transit charge 'unacceptable', 'unknown in international practice,' and 'unliteral,' and demands its immediate revocation.

-- January 6, 2007: A provincial Belarusian judge summons Semen Vainshtok, head of the Russian oil export monopoly Transneft and one of Russia's most powerful businessmen, to a Gomel city district court to answer charges of violating free trade agreements between Belarus and the Kremlin, and possibly smuggling.

The Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian oil to Europe enters Belarus in the Gomel province. Vainshtok is ordered to appear on January 8.

-- January 7, 2007: Authoritarian Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko in a defiant holiday speech tells television viewers 'we can only rely on ourselves ... the most important thing for all of us, is our sovereignty, nothing is dearer to us than that,' and 'we will never allow any one to dictate terms to us.'

-- January 8, 2007: Belarus halts oil shipments through the Druzhba pipeline, depriving Europe of its main source of Russian oil.

The Gomel court cites Vainshtok for failure to appear to in court, either in person or via a legal representative, to answer the smuggling and free trade violation charges. The judge however tables a prosecutors suggestion a warrant be signed out for his arrest, and adjourns without setting a subsequent court date.

Vainshtok, in Moscow, accuses Belarus of having siphoned off 79,000 tons of oil meant for Europe over the last 72 hours. Belarusian officials off-record declare the oil supply will remain shut off until Russia and Belarus settle their tariff dispute. Russia declares it will not negotiate until Belarus turns on the taps.