Freeze in Polish-Russian relations as oil runs dry

By Eva Krafczyk Jan 10, 2007, 11:44 GMT

Warsaw - The oil flowing through the Druzhba - or Friendship - pipeline from Russia, via Belarus, to Poland and on to Germany has dried up, and much the same has happened to the friendship between Poland and Russia.

Poland's oft-expressed scepticism over its dependence on Russia for oil and gas supplies has been dramatically confirmed.

Piotr Naimski, the deputy Economy Minister who is responsible for the energy sector, is complaining openly that the states created by the break-up of the Soviet Union are unreliable business partners, as they involve other countries in their difficulties with each other.

Polish commentators believe that the dispute over transit fees for the pipeline and over the sharply increased gas prices that Russia is charging Belarus have turned Poland into a victim.

There is as yet no panic. Both the Economics Ministry and the spokesman for the PKN Orlen refinery have said that Poland has reserves of crude oil sufficient for 80 days.

And by then, they expect that Russia and Belarus will have resolved their dispute and that the oil will be flowing as before through the pipeline that was built as a symbol of the friendship between the resource-rich Soviet Union and its 'brother nations' in Eastern Europe.

In fact, that friendship has long been undermined in the case of Poland. The conservative nationalist government has repeatedly played the anti-Russian card in the past.

Mistrust of Russia as the successor to the unloved Soviet Union is deep-rooted.

The conflict regarding the embargo imposed by Russia on Polish meat exports, which led to a Polish veto on the partnership agreement being concluded between the European Union and Russia, remains unresolved, despite strenuous efforts by the EU.

And Poland has long been nervous about its dependence on Russia for oil and gas.

Naimski regards efforts to diversify supplies as justified.

He sees Polish opposition to the construction of a pipeline under the Baltic to allow Russia to supply Germany and Western Europe directly, bypassing Poland and the Baltic states, as confirmed.

In the event of a dispute between Russia and Poland, the Russians could simply turn off the energy tap to Poland, without affecting lucrative supplies to Germany and other countries, the Poles fear.

The Polish government is banking on striking deals for gas supplies from Norway and crude oil from Central Asia, that would flow via Turkey and Ukraine.

This is the only way, in Naimski's view, that Poles will in future be spared the unnerving news in the middle of winter: 'The energy tap has been turned off.'