Unbridgeable divide on climate measures at Heiligendamm

Jun 6, 2007, 13:19 GMT

Heiligendamm, Germany - The new initiative put forward by President George W Bush may have brought clarity regarding the US position on curbing global warming, but it has also effectively sunk German hopes of agreeing firm targets at the G8 summit in Heiligendamm.

Below is a summary of the varying positions staked out by the major players before their leaders sit down to discuss the issue in the scenic northern German resort:

- US: Bush wants the 15 countries that cause most atmospheric pollution, and thus global warming, to set a long-term global goal for reducing greenhouse gases by the end of 2008, drawing China and India in particular into the process.

The Bush initiative sets no clear targets for cutting emissions or for putting a limit on global warming. It also gives no role to the United Nations, although it does call for a new framework on greenhouse gas emissions for when the UN's Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

- Germany: Conference host Angela Merkel has put climate change at the top of the agenda, and the German chancellor now faces the real possibility of booking a failure when the summit ends on Friday.

As current holder of the EU presidency, Germany nudged the EU to adopt ambitious fixed targets at a Brussels summit in March that committed the 27-member bloc to a 20-per-cent cut in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2020 from 1990 levels and to a 30-per-cent cut if other nations follow suit.

Following the report in May by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the EU position is that developed countries should collectively reduce their emissions by 60 to 80 per cent by 2050 compared to 1990.

Merkel has offered a cautious welcome to Bush's initiative, but this cannot hide the gaping divide between the two approaches.

- Britain, France, Italy: The other EU members in the G8 are broadly backing the German chancellor. British Prime Minister Tony Blair, although a staunch Bush ally on most global issues, explicitly called in the run-up to Heiligendamm for the setting of clear targets and a clear UN role.

- Japan: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week committed Japan to long-term goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, setting a target of a 50-per-cent cut from current levels by 2050 - slightly less ambitious than the EU's.

But Abe also cautioned against placing too much emphasis on binding targets, saying that a consensus was more important in achieving an effective system for the period after Kyoto.

- Canada: Canada has been unable to meet the Kyoto targets it committed itself to in 1997. Prime Minister Stephen Harper now aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60 to 70 per cent from current levels - a target less ambitious than the EU's.

- Russia: The Kyoto provisions, based on 1990 levels, were easy for Russia to meet, as its economy went into decline through the 1990s.

But with gas and oil exports fuelling a boom, Russia's political leaders are in no mind to adopt measures that might hinder economic growth. Russia thus finds itself firmly in the same camp as the major developing economies China and India.

- Outreach Group: These five countries - Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa - join the summit on the final day but have no formal input into the closing document. As developing countries they are exempt from the Kyoto provisions.

China is set to pass the US soon as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and India is not far behind. The US is determined to include these countries in any future international agreement on curbing emissions.

China sees climate change and development as inextricably linked and insists the developed world take full responsibility for the emissions of the past.

National Development Minister Ma Kai believes it would be unfair to set binding emissions targets that ignore development levels, as these targets would hinder development in poorer countries.

But China has committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2 per cent a year to 2010.

For India too, development takes priority, while Brazil can point to its large-scale use of renewable energy through biofuels made mainly from sugar cane.