US missile plan ups tension between Poland, ex-master Russia

By Mary Sibierski Jul 3, 2007, 11:29 GMT

Warsaw - Sixteen years since the collapse of the Soviet Empire, relations between ex-Soviet satellite Poland and her former master Russia remain frigid and fraught with high-voltage tension on several strategic fronts.

Analysts agree that Poland - a NATO member since 1999 and an European Union member since 2004 - has long been the focus of a tug- of-war between Russia and the United States for influence in Europe.

And recent US plans to deploy interceptor missiles in Poland and associated radar bases in the neighbouring Czech Republic by 2013 have caused Moscow to engage in high-stakes political manoeuvring reminiscent of the Soviet era.

While the US has repeatedly said the so-called missile shield is to serve as a strategic line of defence for the West against terror attacks by rogue states such as Iran or North Korea, Russia sees the project as a grave national-security threat on its doorstep.

Indeed, Polish leaders contend Russia has reacted with a vehemence unheard of since the apex of the Cold War.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Western media that Russia could point its own missiles at European targets should the missile shield be erected in Poland - a comment Poland's Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski compared to the rhetoric used by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Later in June, at the G8 summit in Germany, Putin made US President George W Bush a surprise offer to share the use of radar stations in Azerbaijan, saying that this would provide better protection against any potential nuclear attack from Iran.

While the US response was muted, Polish politicians were quick to point out the far-reaching strategic undertones of Putin's proposal.

Poland's defence minister said that if the US were to accept the offer, it would strongly suggest that Russia still maintains some kind of a sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe, despite the fall of the USSR and EU and NATO expansion into the region.

Such a move would confirm that 'no decision can be made about (Central and Eastern) Europe without Russia's quiet approval,' Polish Defence Minister Aleksander Szczyglo commented.

'I hope the Americans don't confirm this,' he warned.

The unexpected lack of a solid declaration by Bush and Polish President Lech Kaczynski on a missile shield location on Polish soil at talks held just days after Putin's offer raised speculation as to whether the Russian leader had succeeded in stalling the plan.

Bush and Kaczynski are expected to focus on the hot topic in Washington DC in mid-July.

A medium-sized state of 38 million people, Poland has stepped on several of hefty Russia's toes recently.

Most notably, it is blocking the start of talks on a fresh EU-Russia Agreement, insisting that Russia first drop an import ban on Polish meat and plant products.

Moscow claims that Polish products are sub-standard, but Warsaw points out that EU inspectors have yet to find fault with Polish meat and argues the ban is purely political.

Warsaw also sparked Moscow's ire in January 2005 during Ukraine's Orange Revolution, when pro-democracy forces disputed the result of a presidential election won by a candidate heavily backed by Moscow.

Plane-loads of Polish politicians, including then-President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Solidarity trade union legend Lech Walesa, arrived in Kiev to help mediate between the sides.

Pro-Western reformer Viktor Yushchenko emerged the winner of a fresh ballot. To Moscow's consternation, and Warsaw's open delight, he promptly vowed to set Ukraine on a course to future EU and NATO membership.

Poland has also pushed hard for the EU to adopt a common energy security policy, aimed in large part at weaning the 27-member bloc off its heavy reliance on Russian fossil fuels.

The energy crisis of January 2006, when Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in a pricing dispute, causing a sudden shortfall across much of Western Europe, has caused Brussels to take Poland's ideas on energy security seriously.

And in yet another flash-point in the consistently tense Warsaw-Moscow relationship, Poland has led its former-Soviet EU allies, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in opposition to plans for a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea floor.

All four EU states view the project as a threat to their energy security, and have accused EU partner Germany of breaching EU solidarity by making the decision with Russia, without consulting them.