Tadic's win: just a short breather as problems remain

Feb 4, 2008, 15:10 GMT

Supporters of Serbia\'s President and presidential candidate Boris Tadic celebrate after his headquarter claimed victory in presidential elections, in Belgrade, Serbia, 03 February 2008. EPA/KOCA SULEJMANOVIC

Belgrade - The European Union breathed a sigh of relief following the re-election of President Boris Tadic in Serbia on Sunday, but all of the issues which have made the poll as important remained on the agenda - at least for now.

Leaders across Europe welcomed Tadic's uncomfortably close win over the nationalist Tomislav Nikolic, reading it as the sign that Serbia - like Tadic and unlike Nikolic - wants to persist on the hard path of reforms leading it to the distant EU membership.

But the already uneasy coalition of Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) and conservative Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) faces huge challenges and may easily shatter and leave the country in a quagmire of campaigning and instability.

Kostunica had refused to support Tadic's campaign because he would not agree to freeze Serbia's membership talks with EU in protest at the Western support of Kosovo's independence aspirations.

The DS has more seats in parliament than DSS and the smallest, also pro-Western partner in the government coalition, but has conceded most of the power to Kostunica to avert his coalition with Nikolic.

Now riding the wave of Tadic's win and unbound by any past favours, the DS would 'seek to reconsider relations with DSS, even at a cost of early elections,' analyst Zoran Stojiljkovic told radio B92.

Another local analyst, Djordje Vukadinovic, estimated that both the DS and DSS would however try hard to avoid elections, the former wary because of Tadic's razor-thin margin of victory over Nikolic and the latter because of Kostunica's evaporating popularity.

'Some in DS will insist on elections, while the DSS will respond by threatening to pact with (Nikolic's) Radicals, but in the end, neither party is really sure of itself,' he said.

Stumbling blocks are however strewn along the way for the coalition - on Thursday the EU is to offer Serbia a political and economic cooperation deal which Tadic wants badly, while Kostunica views it with mistrust.

Soon after that, the majority Kosovo Albanian leaders may declare independence from Serbia, triggering a huge crisis in Belgrade.

'We are ready and in coordination with our Western allies, the United States and EU, we will declare independence during this month,' Kosovo assembly speaker Jakup Krasnici said Monday.

The recognition of the world's newest country by a series of states, including the leading Western powers, would deliver another hard blow to the unhappy marriage of the DS and DSS.

Kostunica has kept a hard line saying that Serbia should freeze its progress toward EU over Kosovo, while Tadic insists that Kosovo may not interfere with Serbia's progress toward EU membership.

In case the strain proves too much and the crisis, as most observers expect, ends with parliamentary elections quickly, it would produce a clearer distribution of power among Serbian parties.

But it would also further wear out disillusioned Serbian voters, who have found the energy to turn out en masse on Sunday, but may not have enough for another trip to the polls.

Since 2003, Serbs voted twice in parliamentary, several times in failed and twice in successful presidential polls, along with several sets of local elections and in a referendum, usually with lofty but distant topics such as Kosovo on the marquee.

All the while, they fought resentment over failed promises of prosperity easily offered by politicians on a perpetual campaign.