PREVIEW: No clear winner in sight as Slovenians head to the polls

Sep 19, 2008, 14:17 GMT

Ljubljana - Despite serious corruption allegations against Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, his centre-right Slovenian Democratic party (SDS) was still marginally ahead in pre-election polls, but with with no clear winner predicted.

Three weeks before Sunday's election, Finnish TV station YLE had released a report accusing Jansa of accepting a 21-million-euro bribe (32.6 million dollars) to secure the purchase of 135 Finnish armoured vehicles for the Slovenian army.

Although Jansa may have managed to turn accusations around and gained more sympathy for his party, the general feeling was that the race is too tight for him to be confident.

Most surveys gave the SDS a razor-thin lead ahead of the rival Social Democrats (SD), with support for both parties differing by less than the margin of error.

With many of the 1.7 million voters still unsure which way to sway, the two top parties were predicted to win 25-30 per cent of votes each.

The final outcome was due to depend on how the numerous smaller parties perform, and whethEr they pass the four per cent hurdle to qualify for parliament.

The SDS has led three smaller parties in the coalition for a full term since 2004, and the outgoing government can look back on maintaining solid economic growth, keeping unemployment at a record low and smoothly running its six-month presidency of the European Union.

Overall, 50-year-old Jansa kept the northernmost of the former Yugoslav republics on track after it completed a remarkable transition from communism to EU and NATO membership 2004 in only 13 years.

The SD party has meanwhile failed to capitalize on discontent over a rise in inflation since the adoption of the euro last year.

So, shortly before election day but after 20 months of labour protests and nationwide grumbling over prices, it seems that Social Democrat leader Borut Pahor, 44, was wrong to make the corruption allegations the main topic of his party's campaign.

Instead of running first, as it was during the summer, the SD is going into polling day trailing SDS, owing to Jansa's strong performance in the wake of the corruption allegations.

His counter-strategy has included marathon parliament sessions aired live on two of the three state TV channels. But his late surge may haunt him later on if it comes at the expense of his partners.

Some of the smaller parties, like Finance Minister Andrej Bajuk's conservative NSI, may trip over the 4 per cent hurdle and further complicate the post-election scenario.

The volatile, fragmented situation in Slovenian politics also worries SD leader Pahor: His natural ally, Janez Drnovsek's Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (LDS), split to form two new parties, which are predicted to win a total of 18 per cent, dropping from 23 per cent in 2004.