Dec 22, 2008, 17:46 GMT
Belgrade - As Serbs and Albanians continue their tug-of-war over Kosovo, almost a year since the breakaway province declared independence, the European Union seems destined to watch the game instead of decisively joining in.
Following an encouraging wink from the West, Pristina announced secession from Serbia on February 17, almost eight years after a United Nations administration arrived in Kosovo to take over governance from Serbian authorities, who had been ousted by NATO.
But while the United States immediately recognized the new country, an EU consensus on how to treat Pristina and Belgrade remained elusive. In the end, individual members were left to make their own decision, with some nations choosing recognition and some choosing against.
The split weakened the resolve of the majority in Brussels to back Kosovo, which in turn allowed a new leadership in Belgrade to keep smothering Kosovo's fledging and keep a foothold on a part of its territory.
The then-premier of Serbia, nationalist Vojislav Kostunica aggressively reacted to the secession of Kosovo. He downgraded diplomatic relations with countries which recognized it and called demonstrations in Belgrade in which the US embassy was demolished.
But his coalition quickly fell apart amid the push-and-pull over Serbia's leadership. A pro-Western cabinet emerged from May 11 early polls.
The new authorities, lined up behind President Boris Tadic, shelved most of Kostunica's confrontational tactics, restored full ties with Western capitals and mounted a diplomatic offensive against Pristina.
Backed by ally Russia, Serbia blocked Kosovo's recognition in the UN and pushed through an initiative at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for an opinion on the legality of the secession.
Though the ICJ verdict will not be binding and may be ambiguous, Serbia declared the success of its initiative a major diplomatic victory.
More importantly, Belgrade also wrangled concessions from the West ahead of the arrival of Eulex, the EU's law-enforcing mission of 1,900 foreign and 1,100 local police, judges and customs officials.
The EU had promised Pristina's leaders, representing the 90-per- cent Albanian majority, to send Eulex instead of the UN presence and help Kosovo implement a route to full sovereignty.
Instead, the EU agreed to define the mission as status-neutral, as requested by Serbia. Serbia won this concession with the assistance of Russia, which had set conditions before it would allow the UN to 'reconfigure' its presence in Kosovo and make way for the Eulex.
The 6-point plan by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, revealed two weeks before the mission launch date on December 9, also opens the door to accommodate Belgrade's demand for special status of Serb enclaves in Kosovo.
Ban's plan, reported as another win in Belgrade, was angrily dismissed in Pristina. 'Forget the six points, that will not be implemented in Kosovo,' Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci said at a public event in Kosovo at the end of November.
Now Thaci and Albanian leaders fear that the six-point plan may lead to the ethnic partition of Kosovo - which is also exactly what Belgrade is fighting for.
While Albanians dominate overall, the northernmost quarter of Kosovo, wedged into Serbia-proper, is almost exclusively populated by Serbs.
Particularly during Kostunica's 2004-2008 tenure, Belgrade spared no effort to create powerful structures of parallel authority in northern Kosovo.
The government in Belgrade has also discouraged Serbs in Kosovo from taking part in regional elections and cooperating with anybody but the Serbian government and its emissaries. Even as Eulex deployed on December 9, Kosovo Serbs said they would not work with it.
Now, with most of the key parameters of its activity still open to talks, if its chain of command is to be split between EU, UN, the Albanians and Serbs, the Eulex may turn out to be less efficient than what Brussels hopes for.
Perhaps the only winner in this situation is organized crime, which has thrived in the lawless environment and is the declared prime target of Eulex.
But, unlike apparently any organization in the region, including Eulex, organized crime functions across ethnic and actual borders without much hindrance.
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