On Russia, the West has the will, but not yet the way

Feb 7, 2009, 18:58 GMT

Munich - Where there's a will, there's a way: the saying is as old as the English language, dating back over 1,000 years.

But while European and US leaders on Saturday agreed that the West has the will to work with Russia on some of the world's toughest problems, they are still looking for a way to do it following Russia's 'gas war' with Ukraine and its real war with Georgia.

'We need to find ways to incorporate Russia' into the European dialogue on security issues, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the top-level Munich Security Conference - in a tacit admission that those ways have not yet been found.

Twice in the last six months, Europe has gone on red alert due to conflicts between Russia and its neighbours.

In August, the European Union spearheaded an emergency diplomatic push as Georgia attacked its separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Russia invaded Georgia in response.

And in January the EU conducted frantic shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Kiev as a row between Russia and Ukraine over natural-gas contracts caused gas shortfalls across much of Eastern Europe.

Those conflicts provoked bitter condemnation in the West, with the EU's top diplomat, Javier Solana, telling the conference that the Georgian war was 'a massive breach of the core principle we hold very dear: the non-use of violence.'

But over the same period, Western concerns over issues from the financial crisis and climate change to Iran's nuclear programme have led to a chorus of calls for a rapprochement with Moscow - which also has a permanent seat, and with it a veto, on the United Nations Security Council.

The United States and Russia 'can still disagree (over issues such as Georgia) and work together where their interests coincide - and they coincide in many places,' US Vice-President Joe Biden said on Saturday in his first major speech in Europe in his current role.

Even Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country has emerged as one of Europe's most vocal critics of Russian policy, on Saturday called for dialogue with Moscow.

'If we feel a crisis of confidence toward this great potential partner, we want to learn from them what they plan to do for faith and confidence ... to make it better,' he said.

All Saturday's speakers agreed that the West should reach out to Russia to try to solve global problems, with the questions of Iran's nuclear programme, the stabilization of Afghanistan and a global response to the financial crisis all cited repeatedly.

But any attempt to do so will have to deal with two major problems which neither European states nor the US have yet managed to solve.

First of all, Europe remains deeply divided over the question of whether Russia is a potential partner or a potential threat.

'I don't believe modern Russia constitutes a military threat to the EU and NATO,' Sarkozy said bluntly on Saturday.

But it is seen as at least a potential threat in EU and NATO members such as the Baltic states, which have regularly protested against breaches of their airspace by Russian military aircraft, and which viewed the Georgian war with deep alarm.

That difference in assessments seriously weakens the ability of either alliance to agree on a new policy towards Russia, since any joint initiative would have to reassure the more sceptical members without being so aggressive as to alienate the less sceptical ones.

And even if the Western alliances do agree on a common approach to Russia, they will also have to offer Moscow enough incentives to cooperate without giving away so much that key European states such as Poland and the Baltics rebel.

Given the sensitivity in Europe of the question of relations with Russia, that is an extraordinarily fine line to tread.

But analysts say that the sheer scale of the global problems - above all, the financial crisis - may yet force a rapprochement.

Russia last year 'was awash with cash and felt powerful; today the country is struggling to manage a financial crisis amid rising political tensions,' the Munich conference programme commented.

And that being the case, the West's best plan may well be to keep repeating its will to find a compromise - and hope that Russia itself points out the way.