Britain keeps watchful eye on Ireland's Europe vote (Feature)

By Anna Tomforde Sep 28, 2009, 5:05 GMT

   London - Irish trials and tribulations over the Lisbon Treaty have been watched with both hope and trepidation in Britain, where fears of a 'European superstate' still fall on fertile ground.

   While the Labour government of Prime Minister Gordon Brown has supported EU efforts to bring about a second referendum in Ireland - and deployed some political capital to bring the Irish to the table - the opposition Conservatives have been hoping for Brown's quick demise.

That, they say, would allow them to call a referendum on the treaty, in the hopes that it would fail.

   But Brown, while having had his ups and downs in his two years in office, is still in the job, and there is little evidence now that he will be ousted by his restive party before June 2010, by when the next regular general elections must be held.    

'People are learning to love Gordon Brown. They want him to hang on as long as possible. You wouldn't have believed that a year ago,' a European diplomat said.

   Meanwhile David Cameron, the Conservative leader, has moved to the centre of the EU leadership's attention as it tries to shore up support for the treaty before a widely expected change of government in Britain.

   Cameron has pledged that he would hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty - which he says is a constitution in all but name - if and when he comes to power, assuming the treaty was not already in force when he won an election.

   'We have pledged that if the constitution is not in force in the event of the election of a Conservative government we will hold a referendum on it, urge a no vote, and - if successful - reverse Britain's ratification,' he has said.    

Party officials point out that it is not so much the Irish vote, but ratification of the treaty by all members that will determine the Conservatives' response.

   However, when asked what the party would do if the treaty was ratified by all member states, the Conservatives appear lost for an answer.

   'Our official line is that we won't let the matter rest there,' said a senior party official. A decision on what to do next would be taken once the situation was clear.    

Explaining the vague position, the official said: 'We don't want to please our opponents by giving them the impression that we presume that the cause for a referendum is lost.'

   However, Hugo Brady of the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER) believes that 'realpolitik' will bear down on Tory thinking - especially if they were to gain power after 13 years in opposition.

   'If parliaments ratify the treaty, that's that,' says Brady.

   However, the issue of Europe would 'always come back,' especially as the Conservatives held strong views on social guarantees, a common defence policy and the 'cost of EU regulations on British business.'

   In both main parties in Britain, however, and among the public at large, Europe is currently not the No 1 issue - despite continuing popular resentment over ever closer political union.    

Cameron's stance has, meanwhile, come under attack from eurosceptics in his party who say he has made a 'pseudo-pledge' on a referendum instead of making a popular vote on the treaty in Britain unconditional.

   In Europe, Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicolas Sarkozy have made it clear that a Cameron government would face isolation if it called a referendum.

   'We refuse to stretch out our hand to those who oppose the Lisbon Treaty but who at the same time talk about enlargement,' Merkel has said.

   But Brady believes such talk will remain just talk and the rhetoric would be toned down as political conditions changed.

   Neither leader would, ultimately, be prepared to 'sacrifice the key strategic relationship' with London, he said.   

   The same goes for the anger Cameron has provoked by quitting the European Parliament's main-centre right grouping, the European People's Party (EPP), in favour of the new European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR).    

The move had to do more with the Tories' desire to 'throw red meat to the voters' than with how they judged the importance of the European Parliament, said Brady.

   Equally, for Merkel and Sarkozy, the European Parliament issue was 'not as important as they maintain.'

   However Britain, which ratified the Lisbon Treaty just days after the first Irish referendum in June 2008, would remain a country where 'underlying euroscepticism' was unlikely to die, he said.