Europe Features

Berlusconi's future hangs on handful of votes

By Peter Mayer Dec 13, 2010, 7:36 GMT

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (C) attends a ceremony inaugurating the new Tiburtina high-speed train station in Rome, Italy, 10 December 2010. EPA/ALESSANDRO DI MEO

Rome - Haggling to secure last-minute switches in allegiance in Italy's parliament has reached its final stage ahead of a confidence vote that could yet seal Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's political fate.

Both the upper house Senate and the lower house Chamber of Deputies are scheduled to vote later Tuesday on a no-confidence motion presented by the opposition centre-left.

A defeat for the government in either would force Berlusconi to resign, just two-and-a-half years into his term - which is only due to expire in 2013.

And while the premier's centre-right coalition emerged from the 2008 general elections with a comfortable parliamentary majority, the government's future now hangs on a handful of votes.

Berlusconi should still be certain of victory in the Senate, but in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies his government risks falling short of the 316 votes required for an absolute majority.

Tuesday's showdown comes after months of dissent within the ruling People of Freedom party, including the expulsion of its co-founder Gianfranco Fini, after he repeatedly criticised government policies.

Fini over the weekend repeated his call for the premier to quit and accused his former ally of wanting to cling to power as a means fighting his legal battles - a reference to a decree allowing Berlusconi to claim his government duties represent a 'legitimate impediment' preventing him to appear in court.

Several dozen rebel centre-right parliamentarians loyal to Fini and his newly formed Future and Liberty for Italy party, could swing Tuesday's vote in favour of the opposition.

The timing of the confidence vote also sees Berlusconi weakened by a series of scandals which have seen his popularity plummet in some opinion polls.

In one, the 74-year-old billionaire-turned-politician was linked to a Moroccan go-go dancer. Berlusconi admitted intervening with police on her behalf after the woman - then 17-years-old - was arrested on suspicion of theft earlier this year.

The premier has also been embarrassed in revelations by whistle-blower site WikLeaks in which US diplomatic messages criticised his penchant for late-night parties and described him as 'feckless, vain and ineffective'.

Perhaps more damaging for Berlusconi's reputation has been his failure to keep repeated promises to solve a rubbish collection crisis in Naples that has left piles of refuse on the city's streets.

In the lead-up to Tuesday's confidence vote, several political leaders, including Fini - who described it as a 'football players' transfer market,' - have denounced attempts by the premier and his allies to lure opposition parliamentarians into the government's camp.

The premier and his allies of the centre-right coalition have also denied media reports that large sums of money are being offered in exchange for votes, allegations that have prompted prosecutors in Rome to launch an investigation.

Berlusconi for his part has urged parliamentarians to manifest their 'sense of responsibility,' by backing him.

According to the premier, Italy - whose bond market, some experts have warned, could be the next target for speculators - cannot afford the instability that his government's eventual demise would bring.

While stating he is sure of winning the confidence vote, Berlusconi has also said that in the event of a defeat the centre-right will press for fresh elections.

Read more about Italy Politics