PREVIEW: War crimes verdicts against Croatians could affect elections

By Boris Babic Apr 13, 2011, 10:40 GMT

Zagreb/Belgrade - The verdicts due to be delivered Friday by an international court in the war crimes trial of three Croatian generals are certain to provoke strong reaction in Zagreb.

Ante Gotovina, Ivan Cermak and Ante Markac, have all been tried by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY), accused of war crimes in connection with the expulsion of ethnic Serbs from Croatia in 1995.

But Gotovina in particular is regarded by many in Croatia as a hero in the war for independence from the former Yugoslavia. That conflict, which lasted from 1991 to 1995, involved fighting against Belgrade-backed Serb insurgents.

Whatever the Hague-based UN court decides it could strongly influence elections scheduled for no later than 2012.

The verdicts are to be broadcast live on big screens in central Zagreb, with many veteran organizations seeking a massive audience. Bishops in Croatia, whose population is mostly Catholic, have called for prayers for Gotovina's acquittal.

Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor and her conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) have said they expect the ICTY to set the generals free. But if they are found guilty, she and the party could come under fire from the public.

In 2005 the then HDZ government had already assisted in Gotovina's arrest in Spain, helping to clear Croatia of suspicions it was harbouring fugitive war criminals and putting the country on a path towards European Union membership.

Kosor and the HDZ are also under pressure from a public fed up with economic hardship and widespread corruption and guilty verdicts could hurt their chances in parliamentary elections.